More upbeat than WSJ April survey mean:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
“Assessing Methods to Integrate the Physical Risks and Transition Risks and Opportunities of Climate Change into the President’s Macroeconomic Forecast”
CEA and OMB report out today.
GDP Forecasts Brighten Yet Further
The WSJ April survey is out (responses April 5-9):
Guest Contribution: “On the time-varying impact of China’s bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University of Strasbourg).
GDP Nowcasts
GDPNow and NY Fed close.
Wisconsin Economic Forecast Luncheon
Video via WisconsinEye, event on April 10th.
Key Naval Deployments as of 9 April 2024
From FleetTracker:
Trends in German Trade on the Eve of World War I
One shouldn’t just say increasing (or decreasing) trade between potential adversaries predicts something.
Food Inflation Moderates
But convergence in the East North Central portion of the Midwest is slower. Follow up to this post.
What Is Old Is New Again: Channeling Wright Patman
From Bloomberg:
But Jack Manley at JPMorgan Chase argues that the Fed’s current rate range of 5.25% to 5.5% are actually inflationary at this point, and that prices won’t stabilize more until the the central bank starts cutting.
“A lot of what’s going on with inflation today can be linked very closely with the level of interest rates,” Manley said. “You slice and dice inflation and whether you’re looking at the headline number, whether you’re looking at the core number, you’re removing the goods equation — so much of it has to do with the rate environment.”
Apparently, Dr. Stephanie Kelton is an adherent of this view.