That’s the title of a report by the Trump administration CEA earlier this month. It’s an interesting question whether this is the relevant question or not.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
EJ Antoni on the No Tariff Pass Through Thesis
Thanks, Drumpf
WSJ mean survey forecast relative to 2023-2024 trend.
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Uncertainty
Policy uncertainty has remains high; does it matter for economic uncertainty?
Tariffs in the Data
From CPI, note the CPI furniture and appliances category:
Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial, Manufacturing Production, Retail Sales
Up for all three, although production essentially flat since February, and real retail sales down since March. Indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC in Figure 1:
WSJ July Survey: 2025 q4/q4 Growth at 1%
From WSJ July survey out today:
Dispersion in GDP Nowcasts
As of today:
Policy Uncertainty *before* 30% Tariffs on EU, Mexico … and Rosie O’Donnell
Gold and FX Reserves in 2025Q1
Based on IMF data (COFER, IFS):