Daniel Lacalle via Zerohedge writes Continue reading
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Return of Economic Policy Uncertainty
Not that it ever disappeared completely. But expect the EPU to rise as the tariffs start flying, and the deportations begin.
Guest Contribution: “The anti-incumbent wave is real. But it’s not (really) about inflation”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Mark Copelovitch (Political Science and La Follette School, University of Wisconsin – Madison) and Michael Wagner (Journalism and Mass Communication, University of Wisconsin – Madison).
Wisconsin Employment Rises in October
NFP and private NFP up (although below recent peaks), while civilian employment rises.
Structural Breaks in the Term Spread-GDP Growth Relationship
Following up on the examination of what the term spread predicts, here’s the slope coefficients for the term spread, in regressions augmented with short rate, from 1946-2023Q3 (GDP growth 1947-2024Q3).
What Does the Term Spread Predict? IP, GDP, Coincident Index?
It’s commonplace to correlate term spreads with future economic activity measured one way or thSo, while other. Recessions in the US do seem to be predictable on the basis of term spreads; but recessions are a binary variable insofar as the NBER, ECRI, and other institutions define it. What about growth as a continuous variable — be it growth of GDP or industrial production?
Business Cycle Indicators – Mid-November
Industrial and manufacturing production down at consensus rate (-0.3% m/m for both). Core retail sales +0.1% vs. consensus +0.3% m/m. First up, series followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (personal income and employment are key):
Instantaneous Inflation Rates
PPI and core PPI y/y slightly above consensus:
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Various Measures
Core up, but supercore down:
TIPS Yield, Inflation Breakeven and Dollar Rise
Consistent with expansionary fiscal policy plus tariffs hitting a non-passive Fed reaction function.