Buffeted by SVB, income and spending, and PCE releases.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
“(Why) Is The Dollar Still King?”
“The Future of the International Monetary System,” a talk by Mark Sobel, former Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary, Executive Director at the IMF, current US Chair next Tuesday (4/4), at H.F. DeLuca Forum (“Discovery Building”), 330 N. Orchard Street. Co-sponsored by the Center for European Studies and the La Follette School of Public Affairs.
A Statistical Analysis of Implications of Using the “China Virus” Phrase
Trump used it. A reader wrote “A China virus is not racist, it’s placist.” My view is that since there was already a widely known term for the virus, it was unnecessary to resort to a made up moniker. Han, Riddell and Piquero (2023) examines what happened in the aftermath of the popularization of the term.
Wisconsin GDP in 2022
Wisconsin GDP growth slackened in 2022Q2-Q3, lagging the national deceleration.
PCE Inflation for February
Month-on-month PCE inflation was 0.2% below consensus (core 0.1% below).
Business Cycle Sit-Rep, End-March
With the release of the personal income and spending release, we have real consumption (-0.1% vs. 0.0% m/m consensus) and personal income through February; also released today is real manufacturing and trade industry sales. Below, in the graph of key business cycle series followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, I add the 3rd release of 2022Q4 GDP (discussed in context of GDO and GDP+ in yesterday’s post).
GDP (3rd), GDO, GDP+
With GDI reported, we no longer have to guess in order to calculate GDO. GDP+ is also reported out. We have the following picture through Q4.
Weekly Macro Indicators through 3/25
Here’re some indicators at the weeky frequency for the real economy.
FT-IGM March Survey – Expectations Post-SVB
Here’s the growth path according to the FT-IGM survey that closed March 16th, about a week after the unfolding of events surrounding SVB.
Mass Shooting Correlates, through March 2023
Estimating through March 29, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events: