Mike Murphy of the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget gave a presentation at UW’s Tommy G.Thomson Center for Public Leadership, yesterday. I couldn’t attend, but the video is here.
CRFB has handy tool for gaming out modifications to current law to see the impact on the deficit and debt (w/o dynamic scoring). It’s so nifty, in fact, I assigned it to my undergrad public affairs course.
Just published, Chinn-Ito index, available here. Normalized to [0,1], with 1 being most open, here’s the world.
The Q4 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released Monday. Accelerated growth is forecast, no yield curve dis-inversion, and triggering of the Sahm rule.
Headline CPI flat (below +0.1% consensus), and core CPI inflation at 0.2% (below +0.3% consensus). Here are some pictures of central tendency, trend:
From DoD’s 2023 report on PRC’s military and security developments.
Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and St. Louis Fed are for 2.1%, 2.51%, and 1.9%, SAAR respectively.
So the world sometimes gets better. ShadowStats reports May CPI y/y inflation at above 7.5%.
As reported yesterday:
The Fernald-Hsu-Spiegel China Cyclical Activity Tracker (CCAT) indicates Q3 growth 0.26 standard deviation below trend.