The real challenge is for the government to explicitly recognize that without a strong relationship with its private sector, its hopes of transforming the economy into a high-tech one capable of generating more productivity and employment growth are unrealistic. It needs to back this recognition up with concrete measures to support the private sector, including financial-sector liberalization that will help direct more resources to private businesses rather than state-owned ones. Transparency about information and about its policymaking process will help the government a lot more.
Category Archives: China
China Downside Surprises
And PBoC acts. Data accessed 9:30pm Central.
Uncertainty in China
If you were wondering why FDI inflows had sharply decreased, why consumers were wary of spending, part of the reason might be elevated economic and economic policy uncertainty.
Chinese Growth in Question (Again) [Updated]
Update to this post. Official Chinese statistics indicate 6.3% y/y growth in Q2. Maybe it’s less?
Chinese Inflation in July
Year-on-year CPI inflation goes negative (-0.3% vs. -0.4% consensus), and month-on-month is positive.
Chinese Growth in Question (Again)
Official Chinese statistics indicate 6.3% y/y growth in Q2. Maybe it’s less?
“First thing we do, let’s gag all the economists”: China Edition
Apologies (as always) to Shakespeare. From Sun Yu in the FT:
A Search for a Phillips Curve in China
I wondered whether Chinese inflation behavior was anomalous. Answering that question depends critically on (1) what model you believe in, (2) what you believe the model parameters are, (3) what you think the input values are, and (4) whether you think the model has been stable over time. Here’s one answer.
China Upside Surprise
Q2 GDP and June industrial production above consensus. Retail sales slightly below.
China in Recession?
Interview on CNN with LingLing Wei today, she doesn’t say “recession”, but the idea is there (“struggling, ‘big time'”I think is the phrase). Here’s a picture of industrial production ex.-construction through May, and ECRI’s recession dates (peak-to-trough):