Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. The author thanks Sohaib Nasim for research assistance.
Category Archives: China
More on China Q3 GDP
BOFIT calculations (based on Kerola (2019)) indicate a slower pace of growth than officially reported. Year-on-Year, the simple average of alternative calculations is less than 4%, compared to the 4.9% officially reported (which is at the top of the range of growth rates from the alternative calculations).
Guest Contribution: “Exchange Rate Elasticities and Product Sophistication”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
China GDP Growth in Q3
Q/Q was 1.3% vs. consensus 1%.
“The Problems with China’s Economy…”
The real challenge is for the government to explicitly recognize that without a strong relationship with its private sector, its hopes of transforming the economy into a high-tech one capable of generating more productivity and employment growth are unrealistic. It needs to back this recognition up with concrete measures to support the private sector, including financial-sector liberalization that will help direct more resources to private businesses rather than state-owned ones. Transparency about information and about its policymaking process will help the government a lot more.
China Downside Surprises
And PBoC acts. Data accessed 9:30pm Central.
Uncertainty in China
If you were wondering why FDI inflows had sharply decreased, why consumers were wary of spending, part of the reason might be elevated economic and economic policy uncertainty.
Chinese Growth in Question (Again) [Updated]
Update to this post. Official Chinese statistics indicate 6.3% y/y growth in Q2. Maybe it’s less?
Chinese Inflation in July
Year-on-year CPI inflation goes negative (-0.3% vs. -0.4% consensus), and month-on-month is positive.
Chinese Growth in Question (Again)
Official Chinese statistics indicate 6.3% y/y growth in Q2. Maybe it’s less?