The June numbers for Chinese inflation surprised on the downside: 0.0% headline vs. +0.2% y/y Bloomberg consensus, -5.4% PPI vs. -5.0% consensus. Continue reading
Category Archives: China
The Dollar’s Role: Prospects
From D. Fried, CBO Working Paper (summary):
Assessing the Cross-Taiwan-Straits Military Balance
400 Harpoon missiles to Taiwan is a good development. But clearly more is going to be necessary. A leaked document recounted in WaPo assesses the current military situation.
Event: “Managing the U.S.-China Trade and Technology Conflict: Is There a Better Way?”
A CMU-UW Madison-Columbia U-Rand zoom event on “Managing the US-China Trade and Technology Conflict: Is There a Better Way?” (April 17th) with experts (some of whom are coauthors, colleagues, and friends of mine).
“So China is now paying us billions of dollars in tariffs”
That’s economist Trump in 2018, as cited in Coy (2018). Now, from USITC “Economic Impact of Section 232 and 301 Tariffs on U.S. Industries” (page 22), a conflicting assessment.
The Commission’s econometric model estimates that tariffs under sections 232 and 301 resulted in a nearly one-to-one increase in prices of U.S. imports following the tariffs. This implies that a 10 percent ad valorem tariff raised the price of U.S. imports from China by about 10 percent. This nearly complete pass-through (meaning that prices received by exporters were largely unaffected and prices paid by U.S. importers increased by the same amount as the tariffs) is unusual but has been similarly found by other recent studies, which conclude that U.S. importers have borne almost the full burden of section 301 tariffs.
“China Signals Stability With Surprise Move to Keep PBOC Governor”
Expect More of This
House Representative Gooden’s recent comments discussed in LA Times:
China GDP and Forecasts
Chinese GDP for q4 was released a couple weeks ago, show a resumption of growth. The IMF has upped its growth forecast (WEO), relative to October’s, by nearly a percentage point (y/y). Nonetheless, the level of GDP will match roughly what was expected back in April’s report.
China Saber-Rattles (Again)
With provocative incursions of Chinese aircraft across the Taiwan Strait median line around Christmas Day (perhaps as a message responding to the US defense bill), it’s useful to review China’s military posture. Here’s the disposition of Chinese forces in the Eastern and Southern Theaters, as noted by the DoD’s 2022 assessment.
Chinese GDP Growth over the Xi Jinping Era
Over this period, growth has generally surprised on the downside.