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Category Archives: deficits
My Favorite Graph: Lagged RER-NX
Paul Krugman writes on The Dollar and the US Trade Deficit today, and reminds me of my favorite graph (makes an appearance each time I teach macro, and a version shows up in Chapter 13 of Chinn-Irwin International Economics.
“Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates”
From CBO, a working paper by Andre R. Neveu (FDIC) and Jeffrey Schafer (CBO) on the debt sensitivity of the interest rate (DSIR):
MacIver Institute Does International Trade: Be VERY Afraid
France’s Sovereign Debt Situation: Some Graphs
Here’re CDS and spreads vis a vis Germany over the past year:
Chinn & Ito: “Current account dynamics and saving-investment nexus in a changing and uncertain world”
Open access until 21 January 2025 for the paper in JIMF, paper coauthored with Hiro Ito:
Debt-to-GDP under Trump 1.0
A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint.
A Fiscal “Do You Feel Lucky?” Part II
Previous counts put Trump fiscal promises at (at least) $4 trillion over ten years, compared to Harris $1.7 trillion (or Economist $3 trillion vs $1.4 trillion). Now, let’s place Trump tax cuts at a cost of $11 trillion…From “Trump Dangles So Many Tax Breaks Even Some Advisers Are Confused,” Bloomberg:
Guest Contribution: “Impact of Climate Risk on Fiscal Space: Does Political Stability and Financial Development Matter?”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University Paris 8).
FT-Booth Survey of Macroeconomists: Whose Platform Is More Inflationary/Deficit Expanding?
From the September survey, as shown in yesterday’s FT: