CBO projections of debt, normalized by GDP and potential GDP, from before December passage/signing (CBO June 2017) and after (April 2018).
Category Archives: deficits
Under What Administrations Does the Debt-to-GDP Start Rising?
Pretty clear to me:
The Downgrade, the Debt Crisis and the Macro Outlook
Join me at 7 p.m. CT on UW Alumni Association’s TheUWNow livestream (via YouTube), where I’ll be joined by Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson in discussing “The US Credit Rating and You” (moderated by Mike Knetter).
Two Data Sets and Some Papers
For use in ISF 2023 course on “Modeling & Forecasting the International Dimensions”.
Fix the National Debt (Without a Magic Wand)
A simulation from the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Guest Contribution: “Seeking Sustainability in U.S. Debt”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Estimates of the X-Date
From the Bipartisan Policy Center, from DB, from Bloomberg, from CBO.
CDS Spreads on One Year Treasurys
Market anxiety rose three weeks ago, and remains elevated.
The Shape of Things to Come? Consider this Time Series
Market on Debt Default Risk
Higher (a lot) than 2011.