Larger and larger gross cross-border holdings lead to bigger swings in the NIIP to GDP ratio.
Category Archives: deficits
So You Want to Slow Down Debt Accumulation …(while exempting Social Security and Tax Increases)
Center for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has an app for you to try it out, here.
CDS’s on One Year Treasurys
Phillips/Krupa at GS note exhaustion of emergency measures to avoid the debt ceiling could arrive earlier than expected. Insurance costs have risen to above 2011 levels.
“Biden Trump Grows National Debt by 11% in Two Years”
This is a corrected title of a mendacious (and typically statistically incompetent) article by Craig Eyermann in an Independent Institute blogpost (previously highlighted as Ironman of PoliticalCalculations). He writes:
r vs. g
Olivier Blanchard and Larry Summers had an interesting exchange about interest rates and secular stagnation, and target inflation rates today, at PIIE. Blanchard mentioned the evolution of r vs. g as a key issue in thinking about secular stagnation, and this spurred me to look at the data.
For Some People, There’s a Single Solution to Every Problem
Ron Paul, on ending the conflict in the Ukraine. From CounterCurrents:
Debt Held by the Public as Share of GDP
From Treasury, and CBO.
The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance and Federal Debt Held by the Public: Time Series
As a share of potential GDP (CBO May 2022 estimates):
The Cyclically Adjusted Federal Budget Balance
Just a reminder – the budget balance is endogenous (as long as one believes in a fiscal multiplier).
Guest Contribution: “Crashing Through the Debt Ceiling”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate and LA Times.