Looking at not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted private employment from CES vs. QCEW and ADP.
Category Archives: employment
More on Adjusting the CES
The debate over whether the establishment survey is mismeasuring employment growth over the April-June 2022 period continues, with the Philadelphia Fed asserting the net job growth was only 10 thousand, vs. the roughly 1 million reported by BLS. The outcomes of their calculations are presented in the following figure:
Why the Increase in Multiple Job Holders Cannot Account for Most of CES-CPS Discrepancy
Reader Steven Kopits asks me to “show us the math” for why the increase in multiple job holders cannot account for the majority of the discrepancy between net job creation from 2022M03 until 2022M11. Here it is:
The Household-Establishment Surveys Job Creation Conundrum
A week and a half ago, Kevin Drum noted earlier the disjuncture between job creation as measured by the household survey (civilian employment) and establishment survey (nonfarm payroll employment). My conclusion was that the empirical evidence suggested putting most — if not all — weight on the establishment survey. Now, Torsten Slok compares the declines in response rates in the two surveys. The comparison further buttresses the case for using the establishment series.
Is the Establishment Series Overestimating NFP Employment?
That is the proposition forwarded by Kevin Drum at Jabberwocking. Verbatim:
So: have we really created 2.5 million new jobs since March? I’m not sure I believe that.
The graph he posted summarizes his argument succinctly:
Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
NFP employment increase of 263K surprises on upside (vs. Bloomberg consensus of 200K). This is the resulting picture for some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
A Measure to Reduce Inflation, Accelerate Potential Growth
Fix this gap:
Messages from the Labor Market Release
The recession is (probably) not here yet (nor was it likely here earlier this year), employment likely continued to grow, and real wages are on average higher than they were before the pandemic. First, key business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC continue uptrend in October, with exception of the civilian employment series based on the household series.
Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Worker Gap – Updated”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
The Employment Report and Business Cycle Indicators
Nonfarm payroll employment in September was slightly above consensus (263K vs 250K), showing continued growth. This is the picture of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus IHS-Markit monthly GDP.