Employment (NFP, private NFP) exceeds consensus slightly The recession is not here as far as I can tell. Nor does it seem to have been here in H1.
Category Archives: employment
US Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment – What Does the Revamped ADP Series Tell Us?
After a hiatus, ADP released today a new series (compiled in conjunction with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab) that tries to independently measure private nonfarm payroll employment, rather than predict the BLS series. What does it look like over time, and compared to the old series (and the BLS series)?
The “recession…of H1 2022”? (Part II)
Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Implications of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Each year, the establishment series is benchmark-revised. The preliminary estimate for March was released yesterday. Short story – employment growth looks faster and stronger – up 462K relative to original 150856K (up by 0.3%).
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of Beginning August
We’re roughly a month into Q3. Here’s a view, written a week ago:
…based on the indicators I track, yes, I think we are in continuing recession, and I expect a hard reset of the economy in H2.
CBO Assessment on a Current Recessionary Environment
From CBO:
Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
I sometimes see this assertion. It clearly has relevance given the pattern we have as of June 2022 data. The red arrows indicate local maxima.
“Neither model could identify this effect as different from 0.”
Key phrase buried in the Appendix to the Badger Institute‘s study entitled: “Unemployment (Over)compensation: How the federal supplemental unemployment benefits impacted unemployment during the pandemic” (April 2022).
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today?
For the consideration of some people.
The Sahm Rule for determining a recession onset in real time is based on a greater than 50 bps increase in the 3 month moving average unemployment rate relative to its low in the preceding 12 months. This is the picture, using the May 2022 employment situation release data.
Business Cycle Indicators and Employment
With the release of April employment (428K > 391K Bloomberg consensus), we have the following graph of key indicators noted by NBER BCDC.