Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Category Archives: employment
The Employment Report and Business Cycle Indicators
Nonfarm payroll employment in September was slightly above consensus (263K vs 250K), showing continued growth. This is the picture of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus IHS-Markit monthly GDP.
Jobs vs. Employment in the CES and CPS Employment Series
A reader asserts that Senator Johnson, in stating “It’s not like we don’t have enough jobs here in Wisconsin.” means that I should be reporting number of jobs, not number of people employed. However, in the previous post, I was exactly showing manufacturing and nonfarm payroll employment jobs (drawn from the Current Establishment Survey), which refer to the number of jobs, to wit:
Four Pictures of the Labor Market in August
Employment (NFP, private NFP) exceeds consensus slightly The recession is not here as far as I can tell. Nor does it seem to have been here in H1.
US Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment – What Does the Revamped ADP Series Tell Us?
After a hiatus, ADP released today a new series (compiled in conjunction with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab) that tries to independently measure private nonfarm payroll employment, rather than predict the BLS series. What does it look like over time, and compared to the old series (and the BLS series)?
The “recession…of H1 2022”? (Part II)
Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Implications of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Each year, the establishment series is benchmark-revised. The preliminary estimate for March was released yesterday. Short story – employment growth looks faster and stronger – up 462K relative to original 150856K (up by 0.3%).
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of Beginning August
We’re roughly a month into Q3. Here’s a view, written a week ago:
…based on the indicators I track, yes, I think we are in continuing recession, and I expect a hard reset of the economy in H2.
CBO Assessment on a Current Recessionary Environment
From CBO:
Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
I sometimes see this assertion. It clearly has relevance given the pattern we have as of June 2022 data. The red arrows indicate local maxima.