From House and Pugliese at WF today:

• The buoyancy of nonfarm payroll growth has seemed at odds with other signs that the jobs market is beginning to sour. …
• Yet the jobs market is hardly falling apart. A holistic look at the data suggests that directionally the labor market is weakening, but at a measured pace and from a remarkably strong starting point. Not only do signals of demand remain strong on an absolute basis, but job switching remains elevated and the unemployment rate remains exceptionally low at 3.7%.

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[Updated to include December data] Late to the commentary, here’s a picture of the jobs-workers gap for November, based on JOLTS data:

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The relatively volatile household survey employment series and the Philadelphia Fed’s estimated preliminary benchmark adjusted series suggest flat employment in Q2 (although NOT in H1); see graphs in this post. The ADP release on private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment today (surprising on the upside 235K vs 150K consensus) suggests otherwise, when taking into account the relatively small change in government employment over the relevant period.

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Ever wonder whether vehicle miles traveled (VMT) does a good job of predicting recessions. Wonder no more. First take a look at what VMT does over recessions, versus heavy truck sales (suggested by Calculated Risk at some points), and the eponymous Sahm Rule (real time version).

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Consumption flat, at expectations. We now have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.

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