That’s a quote from Mr. Steven Kopits, on why the CES survey showed such a rosy picture on NFP growth. This statement joins a long pile of such allegations, e.g., Senator Barraso, Jack Welch, former Rep. Allan West, Zerohedge, Mick Mulvaney, among others. All I can say is that (1) if there was a conspiracy, they didn’t do a very good job, or (2) it’s a conspiracy so vast that it encompasses not only the other offices of the BLS, but also to ADP.
Category Archives: employment
Can the Increase in Multiple Job Holders Account for the Majority of the CES-CPS Job Creation Discrepancy?
Self-declared policy analyst Steven Kopits comments:
The Employment Release: The Business Cycle Assessed, Accounting for Labor Measurement Issues, Weekly Indicators
The employment situation release for December 2022 provides latest available monthly data on the economy’s conditions. Here’re a variety of labor market indicators:
Wells Fargo: “Nonfarm Payrolls: Too Good to Be True?”
From House and Pugliese at WF today:
- The buoyancy of nonfarm payroll growth has seemed at odds with other signs that the jobs market is beginning to sour. …
- Yet the jobs market is hardly falling apart. A holistic look at the data suggests that directionally the labor market is weakening, but at a measured pace and from a remarkably strong starting point. Not only do signals of demand remain strong on an absolute basis, but job switching remains elevated and the unemployment rate remains exceptionally low at 3.7%.
The Jobs Worker Gap in November [Updated to December]
[Updated to include December data] Late to the commentary, here’s a picture of the jobs-workers gap for November, based on JOLTS data:
ADP Release, and the Flat Employment Growth in Q2 Thesis
The relatively volatile household survey employment series and the Philadelphia Fed’s estimated preliminary benchmark adjusted series suggest flat employment in Q2 (although NOT in H1); see graphs in this post. The ADP release on private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment today (surprising on the upside 235K vs 150K consensus) suggests otherwise, when taking into account the relatively small change in government employment over the relevant period.
Coincident Indicators of Recession: VMT, Heavy Truck Sales, Sahm Rule
Ever wonder whether vehicle miles traveled (VMT) does a good job of predicting recessions. Wonder no more. First take a look at what VMT does over recessions, versus heavy truck sales (suggested by Calculated Risk at some points), and the eponymous Sahm Rule (real time version).
A Holistic but Quantitative Look at Economic Indicators (with Attention to 2022H1)
A reader observes:
How Many Ways Can One Be Wrong on Employment: Steven Kopits Edition
In response to my summary for 2022 and argument that it was unlikely that 2022H1 would be called a recession, Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
So, for H1:
3. Civilian employment was flat to down
Well, it pays to look at actual data before pontificating.
Unemployment Insurance Claims, Layoffs, Recession
Initial claims hit expectations, while continuing claims surprise on upside (1710K vs 1686K consensus).