Is there (an “equlibrium” exchange rate) model for all seasons?
Category Archives: exchange rates
An Exercise in Sheer Conjecture
China, PPP, and Misalignment Estimates
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom (II)
Last week, I wrote a post examining what the measures of central tendency for the dollar’s trajectory were, based upon some standard forecasts. This week, I want to examine more closely whether we should anticipate more depreciation, in real terms, by way of discussing alternative measures of the dollar’s value.
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom?
Some analysts think so.
Oil and the dollar
The dollar falls and oil prices go up. So the two must be related, right?
The Credit Card Bill Comes Due (International Version)
The nation borrowed from the rest-of-the-world when interest rates were low. But interest rates can adjust. So can exchange rates. What to think of our creditors re-appraisal of the “right” effective interest rate to lend to us?
Oil, gold, the dollar, and inflation
Do the ongoing surge in gold and oil prices and slide in the dollar signal a resurgence of inflation?
Modeling Exchange Rates: What Does Current Academic Thinking Have to Say about the Dollar’s Future?
Some Observations on the GDP Release
The BEA’s NIPA release had some surprises for many. Here are some aspects of the release that I find surprising.
Does Dollar Weakness ‘Cause’ High Oil Prices?
There’s an idea floating around that asserts that the high price of oil is — at least in part — due to the weak dollar. Does this make sense?