As the dollar continues to plumb new depths [0], and the economic slowdown continues, I want to discuss two questions about the trade balance that occur to me.
Category Archives: exchange rates
Musings on the Dollar: PPP and Thresholds
As the dollar hits a new low against the euro [0], some thoughts on what arguments make sense, given our knowledge of the statistical properties of real exchange rates.
What Explains Deviations from Interest Rate Parity in Emerging Markets?
Some people have the impression that financial capital zips to wherever the returns are highest. Maybe that’s the case. But I’m not sure.
Trade, Exchange Rates and Pass Through
Some thoughts on what to make of the trade and export/import price releases.
Expenditure Switching or Expenditure Reduction Again: How Adjustment Is Occuring
The latest GDP release suggests trade balance adjustment is proceeding. Some of the adjustment is being driven by changes in the dollar’s value. But I think a lot seems to be coming from the reduction in consumption and income growth.
Do We Really Know that a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Facilitates Current Account Adjustment?
In an post in VoxEU, Shang-Jin Wei alluded to work we have undertaken examining whether de facto exchange rate regimes have an impact on current account reversion.
The Dollar in the New Year
Is there (an “equlibrium” exchange rate) model for all seasons?
An Exercise in Sheer Conjecture
China, PPP, and Misalignment Estimates
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom (II)
Last week, I wrote a post examining what the measures of central tendency for the dollar’s trajectory were, based upon some standard forecasts. This week, I want to examine more closely whether we should anticipate more depreciation, in real terms, by way of discussing alternative measures of the dollar’s value.
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom?
Some analysts think so.