The IMF has just released several chapters of its semi-annual World Economic Outlook. One chapter is entitled “Managing Large Capital Inflows”.
Category Archives: exchange rates
What’s a “Strong Dollar”?
I used to wonder about the use of this term a lot, at least in the context of government pronouncements. Here’s my answer. First, the use of the term in context. From Bloomberg:
Weak Dollar Boosts Growth Without Fueling Inflation (Update1)By Matthew Benjamin and Vivien Lou Chen
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whose signature appears on every new dollar bill, may find the weak currency with his name on it helps the U.S. economy more than the strong one he publicly endorses.
Foreign Exchange Market Transactions and Reserves: Recent Statistics
There’s been a cornucopia of forex market information released in the past week, which I’m only now getting to. First, the BIS has released the preliminary results from its Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity, conducted in April of this year. The results are interesting, insofar as they confirm trends evident in the previous survey in 2004. Second, the IMF released its most recent tabulation of foreign exchange reserve holdings (COFER).
What would be the implications of stagflation for the dollar?
The dollar is declining, with no apparent support. That’s because the recessionary factors seem to be dominating. But a reporter’s question about what factors might support the dollar prompted me to think about other influences that might work in a direction opposite the forces alluded to in the conventional wisdom.
Divining the Dollar
The dollar declines in response to the drop in the target Fed Funds rate. What next?
50 it is
For the first time in 5 years, markets were actually unsure what the Fed was going to do, with yesterday’s fed funds options calling it an even chance that the Fed would settle for a 25-basis-point cut or go all the way to 50. Capital Chronicle had prepared amusing posters as to just how to interpret a 25-basis-point as opposed to a 50-basis-point cut. Fifty it was, disappointing perhaps knzn who wanted a 175-basis-point cut, but delighting economic researchers like Refet Gurkaynak and Eric Swanson who both emailed me their high spirits at finally getting another data point for what happens when the Fed surprises the markets.
Four Observations on Import and Export Prices and the Dollar
Some delayed reflections on exchange rates, trade prices, and the messages from the August data.
Saving Glut Redux
Bernanke recaps his interpretation of the explanation for global imbalances. Is it any more convincing than the first time?
Revaluation and China’s Multilateral Trade Balance: First Estimates
Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii and I have just completed a paper entitled China’s Current Account and Exchange Rate” for a conference on China’s Growing Role in World Trade. This paper follows up on some of the issues I laid out in these posts: [1], [2], [3], and [4].
US Economic Growth: Retrospect and Prospect
Some interesting tidbits can be gleaned from the BEA’s recent release. First, despite the acceleration in growth in 2007Q2, the level of output in 2007Q2 is less than what we thought — as of 28 June — it was in 2007Q1. Second, q/q consumption growth now looks weaker than it did before. Third, while net exports provided a big boost to GDP growth, a large chunk of that effect is attributable to import compression, rather than export acceleration. How one views the durability of the net export effect depends in large part upon how one views the sources of import and export trends.