The dollar falls and oil prices go up. So the two must be related, right?
Category Archives: exchange rates
The Credit Card Bill Comes Due (International Version)
The nation borrowed from the rest-of-the-world when interest rates were low. But interest rates can adjust. So can exchange rates. What to think of our creditors re-appraisal of the “right” effective interest rate to lend to us?
Oil, gold, the dollar, and inflation
Do the ongoing surge in gold and oil prices and slide in the dollar signal a resurgence of inflation?
Modeling Exchange Rates: What Does Current Academic Thinking Have to Say about the Dollar’s Future?
Some Observations on the GDP Release
The BEA’s NIPA release had some surprises for many. Here are some aspects of the release that I find surprising.
Does Dollar Weakness ‘Cause’ High Oil Prices?
There’s an idea floating around that asserts that the high price of oil is — at least in part — due to the weak dollar. Does this make sense?
IMF World Economic Outlook on Managing Large Capital Inflows
The IMF has just released several chapters of its semi-annual World Economic Outlook. One chapter is entitled “Managing Large Capital Inflows”.
What’s a “Strong Dollar”?
I used to wonder about the use of this term a lot, at least in the context of government pronouncements. Here’s my answer. First, the use of the term in context. From Bloomberg:
Weak Dollar Boosts Growth Without Fueling Inflation (Update1)By Matthew Benjamin and Vivien Lou Chen
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whose signature appears on every new dollar bill, may find the weak currency with his name on it helps the U.S. economy more than the strong one he publicly endorses.
Foreign Exchange Market Transactions and Reserves: Recent Statistics
There’s been a cornucopia of forex market information released in the past week, which I’m only now getting to. First, the BIS has released the preliminary results from its Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity, conducted in April of this year. The results are interesting, insofar as they confirm trends evident in the previous survey in 2004. Second, the IMF released its most recent tabulation of foreign exchange reserve holdings (COFER).
What would be the implications of stagflation for the dollar?
The dollar is declining, with no apparent support. That’s because the recessionary factors seem to be dominating. But a reporter’s question about what factors might support the dollar prompted me to think about other influences that might work in a direction opposite the forces alluded to in the conventional wisdom.