As worries from ever expanding — but always containable — housing and mortgage market collapse mount (see this Reuters article), some analysts believe that the external accounts will save the day. From Bloomberg (July 23):
Category Archives: exchange rates
“We have always thought that America got away with something.”
Well, maybe not anymore. And perhaps not even before.
The quote is from an article on how the weak dollar is raising the costs of traveling to Europe, as the USD/EUR rate flirts with 1.40. The longer quote, from yesterday’s NYT article entitled “As Dollar Crumples, Tourists Overseas Reel”
, is:
More on the Yuan and the Chinese Trade Balance
More speculation on the Yuan’s prospects. From Bloomberg:
Import prices surge…
…but mostly due to increasing oil prices.
A Tipping Point for the Dollar?
In a post over a year ago, I observed that the relative stability of the dollar would come to an end as a confluence of events occurred. Those would be the end to rises in the US interest rates, and the continued increases in policy rates abroad, especially in the euro area and the UK, against a backdrop of a massive current account deficit that requires large and continuous infusions of saving from the rest of the world (and indeed consumes most of the world’s excess saving).
Maybe the Euro Isn’t the Competition
The 2006 Net International Investment Position
The BEA released the end-2006 net international investment position (NIIP) today.
Following yields up and down
Thinking about import prices, the dollar, and inflation
Some delayed reflections on the May import/export price release, and how to interpret the data in light of the empirics of exchange rate pass through.
Rejoice! The 2006 current account to GDP ratio has been revised up by 0.3 percentage points
There’s a temptation to view the upward revision to the current account balance, and the components thereof, as yet more evidence that the US external situation is in better shape than commonly perceived.