That’s a prediction from Peter Navarro, on Chairman Powell’s fate in a new Trump Administration.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
Wouldn’t It Be Nice…
That’s the song I was thinking about when I saw the headline in the WSJ, Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed Independence:
“Central Banking in a Time of Crisis: An International and Interdisciplinary Perspective”
Wisconsin International Law Journal conference tomorrow (Friday) at the UW Memorial Union.
Inflation Surprise!
Here’s a graphic depiction of the extent of the surprise, in levels, relative to Bloomberg Consensus and Cleveland Fed nowcasts.
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Probabilities from the March 2024 Meeting”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Steve Hanke Says the Recession Cometh
See here.
with a 4.2% contraction in the US money supply (M2) since Mar-22, all signs are pointing to a recession late this year. There have only been four contractionary episodes of the money supply since the Fed was established in 1913. With a lag, they all produced a RECESSION.
Measuring Fed Inflation Credibility
What do households (not economists) think inflation will be in three years? I use the deviation of forecast from target as a proxy measure for credibility regarding inflation.
Over 300 Years of Central Bank Rates
An interesting picture from Jim Reid/Deutsche Bank:
Dot Plot vs. Market Expectations
For Econ 442 “Macroeconomic Policy”. A question was raised today regarding whether one could distinguish between the market’s expectations and the Fed’s, regarding the path of Fed funds rates. The short answer is yes, under certain assumptions.
More on r*
From BIS Quarterly Review, article by G. Benigno, B. Hoffmann, G. Nuno Barrau, and D. Sandri: