Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
News Impact Illustrated: Jobs, CPI, PPI Releases
Following up on the PPI release (discussed along with other core measures) discussed here, how have markets responded, in terms of Fed funds futures, the ten year rate?
Futures vs. SEP on the Fed Funds Rate Trajectory
Here’s a picture of the Fed funds pre- and post-CPI release/FOMC SEP:
Guest Contribution: “Market participants versus rate-setters: a forecasting horse race”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Luisa Carpinelli, Filippo Natoli, Kevin Pallara, Luca Rossi, Sergio Santoro and Massimiliano Sfregola; Bank of Italy, DG-Economics, Statistics and Research, Advanced Economies and Macroeconomic Policies Division. The views presented in this column represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy or the ESCB.
‘gone in a hundred days’
That’s a prediction from Peter Navarro, on Chairman Powell’s fate in a new Trump Administration.
Wouldn’t It Be Nice…
That’s the song I was thinking about when I saw the headline in the WSJ, Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed Independence:
“Central Banking in a Time of Crisis: An International and Interdisciplinary Perspective”
Wisconsin International Law Journal conference tomorrow (Friday) at the UW Memorial Union.
Inflation Surprise!
Here’s a graphic depiction of the extent of the surprise, in levels, relative to Bloomberg Consensus and Cleveland Fed nowcasts.
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Probabilities from the March 2024 Meeting”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Steve Hanke Says the Recession Cometh
See here.
with a 4.2% contraction in the US money supply (M2) since Mar-22, all signs are pointing to a recession late this year. There have only been four contractionary episodes of the money supply since the Fed was established in 1913. With a lag, they all produced a RECESSION.