I was astounded not only by the outcome of the U.S. presidential election but also by the response of financial markets.
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Category Archives: financial markets
Guest Contribution: “Is the Renminbi a Safe Haven?”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Rasmus Fatum, at the University of Alberta. This post is based upon the Dallas Fed working paper by the same title.
Commodities, International Finance, and Real Exchange Rates
Those are the topics covered tomorrow (Friday, 10/14) at the 5th annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance 2016, taking place at Santa Clara University. As usual, these look like a set of fascinating papers, and a must-see for those interested in international finance/open economy macro (A post discussing last year’s conference proceedings is here).
Re-Writing the (International) Textbook: Interest Parity Conditions
Literally.
No Kidding: “Hard Brexit has haunted the sterling.”
Ron Alquist brings my attention to this ongoing story:
Source: Bloomberg 10/6/2016.
Term Spreads Today
A couple months ago, we were worrying about a yield curve inversion signalling recession. Now there are anxieties about surging long yields, as — apparently — inflation fears loom. It seems to me a little perspective is necessary.
“Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies”
That’s the title of a new paper, coauthored with Yin-Wong Cheung, Antonio Garcia Pascual, and Yi Zhang.
Donald J. Trump: “The interest rates are kept down by President Obama.”
The entire quote is here.
“Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy”
That’s the title of the volume of proceedings of the 2015 Asia Economic Policy Conference, edited Reuven Glick and Mark M. Spiegel.
Fed tightening cycles
Last December the Fed began what it thought at the time was a new cycle of tightening. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s statements last week suggest the Fed still sees this plan as underway. A comparison with historical tightening cycles sheds some light on why so far the Fed hasn’t followed through.
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