Following up on the PPI release (discussed along with other core measures) discussed here, how have markets responded, in terms of Fed funds futures, the ten year rate?
Category Archives: financial markets
“Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?”
Yes! From Rashed Ahmed and Menzie Chinn, just published in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Guest Contribution: “Market participants versus rate-setters: a forecasting horse race”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Luisa Carpinelli, Filippo Natoli, Kevin Pallara, Luca Rossi, Sergio Santoro and Massimiliano Sfregola; Bank of Italy, DG-Economics, Statistics and Research, Advanced Economies and Macroeconomic Policies Division. The views presented in this column represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy or the ESCB.
How Are Households Holding Up, Debtwise?
CNN published an article today, entitled “What’s really happening in America’s economy”. Most points are conventional, but one graph was interesting – credit card debt:
More, on the Dollar
At the same time as the Fed-NY Fed Dollar conference, the Atlanta Fed had a conference on financial markets.
Private Nonfinancial Debt-Service-Ratio
In yesterday’s post, I noted a recession forecast based on a probit specification incorporating a debt-service-ratio yielded a substantially lower probability for 2024M05 than a plain vanilla specification. Part of why this is true is that the debt-service ratio is fairly low, despite high Treasury yields.
A Really Very Long Series on the Real Rate
With implications for growth and demographic influences. From Rogoff, Rossi, and Schmelzing (AER, 2024):
Over 300 Years of Central Bank Rates
An interesting picture from Jim Reid/Deutsche Bank:
Monetary Policy Rates around the World
Some pictures for Econ 442, monetary policy module.
Estimates of r*
Who thinks it’s 4% or above?