If you look at the CDC statistics without looking at the footnotes, you could be forgiven for mistakenly concluding the US was nearing zero Covid-19 fatalities.
Category Archives: health care
Trumpian True Believers
A reader defends the Trump administration’s implementation of public health policies in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic:
Trump never dismissed the pandemic, if you look at his full quotes rather than dishonest snippets. He has always followed the advice of his senior health policy officials. And Trump did a tremendous amount to manage the pandemic. Unfortunately, he gets little credit for that, since the media has actively suppressed the Administration’s accomplishments.
Covid-19 Fatalities, 7 July 2020
From FT, by nation/group:
An Employment W – What Would It Take?
Some idle speculation as we head into more closures: What if hospitality and leisure and retail employment dropped back to May levels, and the rest of nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2 million (it increased by 1.972 million in June). Then what would overall employment look like?
Business Cycle Indicators as of July 2
Nonfarm payroll employment continues to rise in June (although it remained over 10% below peak, in log terms). Here is a graph of some key variables tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Excess Deaths, March-May 2020
CDC Criteria Not Met (out of 4), by State
CDC has defined 4 criteria for relaxing restrictions (called “gating criteria). Only two states now meet all the criteria, a lot meet 0 or only 1 — 11 states.
Source: Goldman-Sachs, 7/1/2020.
Florida meets none; Texas meets 1, but is just teetering on slipping into none.
Declining Mobility in TX, FL
From Wells Fargo’s mobility trends report, today (for Google data thru 27th, Apple data thru 29th):
These types of data are used to infer economic activity at the regional level. Note that this data is not seasonally adjusted.
Continued Recovery in June (II)
ADP releases its figure for private nonfarm payroll. Bloomberg consensus is for BLS is for an increase.
The obvious question: will July register an increase, as restrictions are re-instituted?
Covid-19 Pandemic in the US: The Trump-Annotated Timeline
From Invictus: