From FT, by nation/group:
Category Archives: health care
An Employment W – What Would It Take?
Some idle speculation as we head into more closures: What if hospitality and leisure and retail employment dropped back to May levels, and the rest of nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2 million (it increased by 1.972 million in June). Then what would overall employment look like?
Business Cycle Indicators as of July 2
Nonfarm payroll employment continues to rise in June (although it remained over 10% below peak, in log terms). Here is a graph of some key variables tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Excess Deaths, March-May 2020
CDC Criteria Not Met (out of 4), by State
CDC has defined 4 criteria for relaxing restrictions (called “gating criteria). Only two states now meet all the criteria, a lot meet 0 or only 1 — 11 states.
Source: Goldman-Sachs, 7/1/2020.
Florida meets none; Texas meets 1, but is just teetering on slipping into none.
Declining Mobility in TX, FL
From Wells Fargo’s mobility trends report, today (for Google data thru 27th, Apple data thru 29th):
These types of data are used to infer economic activity at the regional level. Note that this data is not seasonally adjusted.
Continued Recovery in June (II)
ADP releases its figure for private nonfarm payroll. Bloomberg consensus is for BLS is for an increase.
The obvious question: will July register an increase, as restrictions are re-instituted?
Covid-19 Pandemic in the US: The Trump-Annotated Timeline
From Invictus:
Guest Contribution: “Covid-induced precautionary saving in the US: the role of unemployment rate”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Valerio Ercolani, from the Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research at the Bank of Italy. The views expressed in this note represent that of the author and not necessarily reflect those of Bank of Italy.
Change in Cases, US-ex.Tri State, Texas and Florida
Guess it didn’t disappear, like a miracle.
Source: I. Rosenberg, “Global Economics Comment: Tracking Coronavirus,” Goldman Sachs, 27 June 2020.