The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.0% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That’s well above the 3.1% average growth that the U.S. experienced over 1947-2019, and follows a 28.8% logarithmic annual growth rate seen in Q3.
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Category Archives: housing
Real House Prices Decline
Case-Shiller indices came out today. August prices for the 20 city index declined m/m, and Zillow’s forecast for the CS 20 city index in September was for another decline. This is shown in Figure 1:
Real Home Prices
Case-Shiller August prices come out next week. For now, we have Zillow prices through September, and Zillow forecast. Here are the CPI deflated prices.
Real Housing Prices Stabilizing … or Falling
Case-Shiller through July, Zillow through August.
Figure 1: Case-Shiller 20 city home price index (blue, left log scale), Zillow forecast of Case-Shiller August value (blue +, left log scale), and Zillow single-family home prices (brown, right log scale). Source: S&P via FRED, Zillow, BLS, and author’s calculations.
As Calculated Risk notes, Zillow makes predictions for the Case-Shiller index. They forecast the August 2019 m/m growth rate (not annualized) in the 20 city composite at -0.1% (roughly -1.2% on an annualized basis). The forecast is shown in Figure 1 as a “+”.
New home sales depict a much more optimistic picture, as Calculated Risk discusses.
Economy still growing, but…
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter of 2019. That’s pretty near the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009:Q3.
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Recession Anxieties, June 2019
Different forward looking models show increasing likelihood of a recession. Most recent readings of key series highlighted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) suggest a peak, although the critical indicator — nonfarm payroll employment — continues to rise, albeit slowly.
Thoughts on the Next Recession
CEA Chair Kevin Hassett has stated a recession by next summer is impossible. I’m wary of such definitive statements.
Is Housing the Business Cycle, 2019?
In 2007, Ed Leamer presented “Housing is the business cycle” at Jackson Hole. In 2018, Leamer himself doesn’t think a recession is imminent, but the following graph certainly gives one pause for thought.
Continue readingLarry Kudlow Forecasts
Mr. Kudlow is apparently on the short list for new National Economic Committee chair. Maybe a good time to review some of his macro predictions.
Figure 1: Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, s.a., deflated by CPI-all (blue, left scale), and real GDP, bn. Ch.2009$ SAAR (black, right scale). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Red line at 20 June 2005 comment on housing bubble, and pink line at 7 December 2007 on recession. Source: S&P, BLS via FRED, BEA (2017Q4 2nd release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
Guest Contribution: “The Case against Subsidizing Housing Debt”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.