Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by James Cabral (University of Toronto) and Walter Steingress (University of Wisconsin). The views expressed are solely those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the institutions they are associated with.
Category Archives: housing
Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?
Ad hoc time series analysis.
Mortgage Spreads
Thirty Year Mortgage-Treasury Spread
From FRED, a maturity matched spread (as well as 30 yr -10 yr Trsy).
How To Calculate the Upper Bound Estimate on After Tax Real Mortgage Rates
“After tax mortgage rates are well below inflation—IOW negative real rates. A helluva deal!”
Contra this comment, the data suggests otherwise.
If the Housing *Is* the Business Cycle, What Does this Picture Mean?
That’s what Ed Leamer noted back in 2007. Residential construction employment, spending, housing starts, new home sales, all normalized to 2021M11.
Fed hasn’t stopped GDP from growing
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter. That makes two quarters in a row with values close to the historical average, a welcome relief from the modestly negative growth rates with which we started last year.
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Not a recession … yet
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the historical average (3.1%), and is a welcome sequel to the two quarters of falling GDP with which we started the year.
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Why did U.S. real GDP fall?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter. What does this portend?
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