That’s the message from PCE deflators today.
Category Archives: inflation
How to End an Endless Debate
A long running debate between reader JohnH and just about anybody else on this website involves UK 2015 (1) inflation, and (2) real wages, with JohnH quoting from various documents. I thought it useful to GET THE DATA MYSELF to resolve the question. Below are three graphs, of consumer price level, year-on-year inflation, and the CPI deflated wage.
Implications of a Flex-Price Quantity Theory
The current GDP deflator should be 18% higher (in log terms), or 154.2 instead of 128.2. To see this, consider the tautology:
Trend CPI Down?
M/M headline vs. core vs. trimmed mean vs. median:
CPI Inflation below Expectations – Markets Respond
M/M CPI inflation 0.4% vs. Bloomberg consensus 0.6%, while core was 0.3% vs. 0.5%. All measures (m/m, q/q, y/y, headline/core) below recent peaks.
On the Eve of November FOMC
Expected economic activity, medium term market based inflation expectations, and risk/uncertainty measures.
How Much Was the Expanded Russian Invasion of Ukraine Anticipated?
Answer: Not much. This point is critical in assessing how appropriate conditional forecasts of inflation were, especially those pertaining to 2022.
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022: “Countering the Cost of Living Crisis”
Guest Contribution: “Has the Fed Pivoted Too Far?”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Reserve Currency Status Is No Vaccination against Recklessness – UK Edition
…although it helps.
I never thought an advanced economy government could pursue stupider policies than that implemented under the Trump administration. Consider me corrected on this point – case in point, the United Kingdom in 2022.