Not only is there variations across surveys of different groups, there are variations across groups within households.
Category Archives: inflation
Market Expectations on Fed funds, Spreads, Inflation post-CPI Release
Lower on Fed funds at February meeting. Don’t see much movement on spreads, despite talk of a pivot, and the possibility of a soft landing.
More on an Inflation Regime Switch
Is core CPI inflation in a new regime? Results using a Markov switching model (pioneered by James Hamilton).
December 2022 CPI
Here are the levels of headline and core CPI, versus forecasts and nowcasts.
CPI Headline, Core Inflation Nowcasts and Forecasts
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations, January 2023
Down slightly in November.
Month-on-Month PCE Deflator Inflation: Has the Regime Switched?
Core PCE inflation was at consensus, 0.2% m/m. Are we in a new inflation regime?
Month-on-Month Headline, Core inflation Down
Below consensus, headline m/m at 0.1% vs. 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, and core 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus. Headline and core m/m annualized inflation in Figures 1 and 2, along with chained, sticky price, trimmed, and PCE.
Real Wages during and Post-Pandemic
While recent accounts have focused on the erosion of real wages with high inflation, what is true is that average real wages in the private sector, and amongs the lowest paid segment, leisure and hospitality workers, has risen since 2020M02.
Short Horizon Inflation Expectations – Survey and Market Based
One year horizon: