That’s my name for Trump’s 10% universal tariffs plan augmented with additional 60% on Chinese-made imports. h/t to Torsten Slok for the CBO letter. I show implied effects on PCE deflator inflation, and GDP relative to January 2025 CBO projection.
Category Archives: inflation
The CPI Rose…as Did Wages (mid-2022 to 2024)
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni shared this graph of the CPI level:
Instantaneous Inflation
Headline up, core down.
Inflation Expectations since the Election: Up
At 10am ET, 10 year Treasury yields were at 4.8%, up from 4.7% at Friday’s close (delta 8 bps). TIPS 10 year were at 2.35% up from 2.32% (delta 3 bps). Here’re some 5 year inflation expectations data over the last year.
Jeffrey Tucker in the Steps of Shadowstats
Remember Shadowstats? Well, there’s always a John Williams. Here’s Tucker in EpochTimes (reprinted in ZeroHedge):
Making Sense (If Possible) of Expected Inflation and the Dollar
Five year breakeven up, dollar up.
What If? Thoughts on the No Excess Demand Scenario
It’s become commonplace to assert that the passage of the American Rescue Plan ignited inflation, dooming the prospects for the Biden and Harris candidacies. Consider this piece:
An Alternative Perspective on PCE Deflator Inflation: Instantaneous Inflation
PCE deflator below 2%:
“More and more market participants don’t believe the Fed anymore.”
That’s Heritage Foundation economist EJ Antoni yesterday. Dr. Antoni continues:
Increasingly, people are realizing that the 2% target is long gone. We’re looking at 3% basically as the implicit target. Now we’re in for a lot of pain. So the question is just, is this going to be 1920 or is it going to be 1929
“Putin’s Central Banker Angers Russian Elite With Rate Hikes”
Or, “who needs a stinkin’ independent central bank, non-Trump edition.”
Could this article explain why at 1:30 AM CST as I awaited data on the Russian Central Bank’s interest rate decision… nothing happened?