We are still in the process of determining what’s in the Build Back Better (BBB) bill, but it approximates what is currently discussed, it in conjunction with the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) will not likely lead to much pressure in credit markets and upward pressure in prices, given it is largely paid for. Here (while we wait for the CBO) are Moody’s Analytics projections (as of 11/4).
Category Archives: inflation
What Remains of the Inflation Scare of October 2021?
Some messages from the market and from estimated inflation rates.
Economic Activity and Inflation Measures for September [updated]
While the GDP release dominated the news, we got new looks at economic activity and price pressures on Friday (and monthly GDP today).
Be Careful with Simple Treasury-TIPS Spreads
The five year Treasury-TIPS spread has, inarguably, shot up:
Different CPIs
A recent exchange [1] on Econbrowser regarding forecasts of CPI reminded me that — even among the official series — there’s more than one CPI.
A Graphical Primer to Interpreting the Sources of Inflation in the Covid Era
For students in Econ 435, using model originally in Robert Hall and John Taylor, “Macroeconomics”, and shown in the ADAS handout.
Velocity Is Not Stable
I thought this had been determined half a century ago, but just to remind people in case they’d forgotten.
If You Are Worrying About Inflation Eroding Wages…
So far, the lower paid are seeing the biggest gains…
CPI Inflation in September
Headline slightly above Bloomberg consensus (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and core at consensus (0.4%), but month-on-month inflation rates are down relative to peaks earlier in the year. Re-opening inflation rates are decreasing in importance, as energy rises. The inflation is becoming more broad-based.
One Year Expectations on the Eve of the CPI Release
NY Fed’s consumer survey runs hot at 5.3%, hotter than MIchigan’s 4.6%.