Some messages from the market and from estimated inflation rates.
Category Archives: inflation
Economic Activity and Inflation Measures for September [updated]
While the GDP release dominated the news, we got new looks at economic activity and price pressures on Friday (and monthly GDP today).
Be Careful with Simple Treasury-TIPS Spreads
The five year Treasury-TIPS spread has, inarguably, shot up:
Different CPIs
A recent exchange [1] on Econbrowser regarding forecasts of CPI reminded me that — even among the official series — there’s more than one CPI.
A Graphical Primer to Interpreting the Sources of Inflation in the Covid Era
For students in Econ 435, using model originally in Robert Hall and John Taylor, “Macroeconomics”, and shown in the ADAS handout.
Velocity Is Not Stable
I thought this had been determined half a century ago, but just to remind people in case they’d forgotten.
If You Are Worrying About Inflation Eroding Wages…
So far, the lower paid are seeing the biggest gains…
CPI Inflation in September
Headline slightly above Bloomberg consensus (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and core at consensus (0.4%), but month-on-month inflation rates are down relative to peaks earlier in the year. Re-opening inflation rates are decreasing in importance, as energy rises. The inflation is becoming more broad-based.
One Year Expectations on the Eve of the CPI Release
NY Fed’s consumer survey runs hot at 5.3%, hotter than MIchigan’s 4.6%.
Just How Small Is the Impact of (Measured) Expected Inflation?
The debate over the role of expectations in inflation determination [e.g., discourse over Rudd’s working paper] gives me a sense of deja vu. That being said, it’s always useful to see what the data say, when running a simple OLS regression on a basic expectations augmented Phillips curve (without a statement on forecasting, which often includes conditioning on future developments). I examine PCE inflation over the 1986-2021Q2 period.