Still averaging around 1.7%, for the next five years.
Category Archives: inflation
One Year Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations
The gap between household expectations and economists forecasts is widening [updated 3:30pm]
Forty Years of Real Treasury Rates
Preparing graphs for my course, I generated this graph which shows the trend decline in real (risk free) rates. Is there any reason to believe in an imminent reversal of the trend?
Market-Based Indicators of Inflation, Growth and Risk
Medium term inflation expectations are muted, growth expectations are recovering slightly, and perceived risk seems contained.
Where Do Monetarists Think the PCE Price Level Is Going To?
From an email from Tim Congdon, at the International Institute for Monetary Research (9/20):
CPI Undershoot Illustrated
Typical headline – “U.S. Consumer Price Growth Cools, Smallest Gain in Seven Months“, and “Treasuries Rally After CPI Seen Pushing Off Taper: Markets Wrap” or “Consumer prices climbed more slowly in August, welcome news for the Fed“. Here’re the graphical depictions of the undershoot, first in levels (updating graph from yesterday’s post).
Two Pictures – Money to Income and the Price Level
[For my Econ 435 students] Consider the following graphs. Figure 1 is M1 and M2 to real GDP (0.80 means 80%) for the United States. Figure 2 is M1 to real GDP on left scale, and CPI-all urban on the right scale (taking on a value of 100 in the period 1982-84).
August CPI – Nowcasts
The CPI release for August numbers is tomorrow. As of today, here are the Cleveland Fed nowcasts for CPI and Core CPI:
Inflation – A Comprehensive Global Database, 1970-2021
From Ha, Kose, and Ohnsorge, One-Stop Source: A Global Database of Inflation:
Inflation Outlook – Looking Forward to August Data
If the Cleveland Fed nowcasts are accurate, month-on-month CPI inflation will be down, core CPI rising slightly from 4 to 4.2% (annualized).