Locking up the butter in Russia (CNN). Official inflation in October was 0.8% m/m (annualize that and it’s about 10%. That’s the official inflation rate. The ex post rate is around 11% then.
Category Archives: inflation
Instantaneous Consumer Inflation in October
Including HICP and nowcasted PCE deflator.
Guest Contribution: “The anti-incumbent wave is real. But it’s not (really) about inflation”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Mark Copelovitch (Political Science and La Follette School, University of Wisconsin – Madison) and Michael Wagner (Journalism and Mass Communication, University of Wisconsin – Madison).
Instantaneous Inflation Rates
PPI and core PPI y/y slightly above consensus:
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Various Measures
Core up, but supercore down:
“The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022
Inflation Breakevens, Term Spreads Up pre-FOMC
As of yesterday COB:
Everyday Price Inflation at 0.3% y/y?
Versus 2.4% for the CPI (in logs). Lots of people think the government’s statistics understates the true inflation rate. It used to be John Williams at ShadowStats. Now it’s EJ Antoni at Heritage Foundation (who touts the use of Primerica’s everyday price index). But the American Institute for Economic Research’s “Everyday Price Index” (EPI) says otherwise (over the past year and a half).
“The Economy would grow under Harris. Under Trump, expect higher prices and debt.”
By Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch
A Harris administration is far less likely to disrupt the ongoing and unprecedented American economic recovery of the last three years with stark policy reversals. This is an expanded version of an op-ed published in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Instantaneous Inflation: PCE, Market Based PCE, HICP, CPI, and Chained CPI
With PCE deflators released today: