A comparison:
Category Archives: inflation
Nonsensical Graphs that People Post
Item 1:
Has American Economic Output Been in Decline since 2022?
This is the premise of a new paper by Peter St. Onge and EJ Antoni. I have been trying to find a deflator that can yield that the result that US GDP in 2024Q2 is 2.5% below 2019Q1 levels. Based on their discussion in their paper, as well as a video by Dr. St. Onge, I have tried calculating a consumption deflator that is based on house prices and mortgage rates, using the Big Mac price (which Dr. St. Onge lauds in his video as an alternative to official statistics or PWT data), and fast food prices (specifically, the food away from home/limited services restaurants component of the CPI).
Fed Inflation Credibility Measured
Has the Fed lost credibility, as some people have argued (e.g., EJ Antoni)?
Inflation: A Discussion in Milwaukee
A Main Street Agenda town hall meeting on inflation to be held today, Tuesday, Oct. 15, from 6 to 8 p.m. at the Clinton Rose Senior Center, 3045 N. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive. Register here. American Press Institute/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/Wisconsin Public Radio/Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs. Livestreamed here.
Contextualizing the Inflationary Impact of the 10%/60% Trump Tariff Plan
I was trying to think about how to contextualize the impact of the Trump 10%/60% tariffs on inflation. McKibbin-Hogan-Noland (2024) trace out the impact of this measure (as well as mass deportation) on inflation using an updated version of the G-Cubed model. In 2025, they estimate inflation will be 0.6 percentage points above baseline. Goldman-Sachs also come up with similar implied effects (although in their scenario, they only assume a portion of the tariffs are implemented)
Instantaneous Core Prices
Updated to include core PPI:
CPI and CPI Core Surprise on Upside
CPI m/m at 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus [correction 7:15pm CTÂ MDC] (Core 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus). Here are snapshots of instantaneous inflation rates for September headline, core, supercore, and services supercore CPI, headline and core PPI and HICP and headline and core PCE deflator for August.
Main Street Agenda town hall meeting in Milwaukee: Inflation
A Main Street Agenda town hall meeting on inflation to be held Tuesday, Oct. 15, from 6 to 8 p.m. at the Clinton Rose Senior Center, 3045 N. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive. Register here.
Misery Index, 2020M12 and 2024M08: 8.0% vs. 6.8%
With latest available data: