Linda Goldberg and Signe Krogstrup have a revised version of a paper entitled “International Capital Flow Pressures and Global Factors”. They write:
Category Archives: international
Recession Probabilities Incorporating Foreign Term Spreads
Foreign term spreads in several major financial centers have inverted (you can see the yield curves here). What is the probability of a recession 12 months ahead, using the 10yr-3mo term spread, the foreign (Germany, UK, Japan, Canada) 10yr-3mo term spread, and the national Financial Conditions Index (FCI), as suggested by Ahmed and Chinn (2022)? Answer: High
IMF WEO on US GDP
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook January update is out, with some slight upward revisions to world output projection growth for 2023, and more so to US and China. Here’s the US projection.
Trade Deficit Shrinks Dramatically: Interpretations
The trade balance [November release] rose to -$83.3 billion vs. Bloomberg consensus of -96.3 billion. The goods trade deficit with China also shrank sharply.
Russian GDP, Revised: A Bigger Hit in Q2
From BOFIT, revisions back several years, showing a sharper drop in Q2 (5.2% q/q vs original 1.9%).
China Saber-Rattles (Again)
With provocative incursions of Chinese aircraft across the Taiwan Strait median line around Christmas Day (perhaps as a message responding to the US defense bill), it’s useful to review China’s military posture. Here’s the disposition of Chinese forces in the Eastern and Southern Theaters, as noted by the DoD’s 2022 assessment.
Goods Trade Balance Improves in November
Advance indicators for the goods trade balance came in today, at -$83.35 bn above consensus of -$96.90 bn.
“Sky-high [natural] gas prices…”
Guest Contribution: “The Strong Dollar, Global Inflation, and Global Recession”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
The External Environment and Prospects for GDP Growth
As noted by Jim in his post on the 2022Q3 GDP release, exports and imports accounted (mechanically) for more than 100% of 2022Q3 GDP growth: