Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Category Archives: international
“Forecasting Summer School: Modeling and Forecasting the International Dimensions”
That’s the title of the 6th annual Forecasting Summer School, June 24-25, at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business, Charlottesville, where I’ll be the instructor. The deadline in March 27.
Financial Market Integration Assessed
In a new paper prepared for the Handbook of Financial Integration, edited by Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Hiro Ito and I examine bond based measures of financial market integration (so, no quantity stock/flow measures, nor banking integration).
Do Declining Imports Signal an Imminent Recession?
Maybe. Maybe not. Some reasons to wonder.
One Year In: What Did Putin’s Gambit Do to Spreads, Uncertainty, and Activity?
Bluntly put, term spreads moved toward inversion, and inflation expectations adjusted for premia increased. VIX has been elevated since February 2022, and GeoPolitical Risk rose in the period right after the invasion. Growth, which had been accelerating according to weekly indicators, then decelerated. In other words, “Thanks, Putin”.
Revisiting Exchange Market Pressure
Linda Goldberg and Signe Krogstrup have a revised version of a paper entitled “International Capital Flow Pressures and Global Factors”. They write:
Recession Probabilities Incorporating Foreign Term Spreads
Foreign term spreads in several major financial centers have inverted (you can see the yield curves here). What is the probability of a recession 12 months ahead, using the 10yr-3mo term spread, the foreign (Germany, UK, Japan, Canada) 10yr-3mo term spread, and the national Financial Conditions Index (FCI), as suggested by Ahmed and Chinn (2022)? Answer: High
IMF WEO on US GDP
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook January update is out, with some slight upward revisions to world output projection growth for 2023, and more so to US and China. Here’s the US projection.
Trade Deficit Shrinks Dramatically: Interpretations
The trade balance [November release] rose to -$83.3 billion vs. Bloomberg consensus of -96.3 billion. The goods trade deficit with China also shrank sharply.
Russian GDP, Revised: A Bigger Hit in Q2
From BOFIT, revisions back several years, showing a sharper drop in Q2 (5.2% q/q vs original 1.9%).