Ferrara and De Roux actually pose the question more tactfully, in their paper (Capturing international influences in U.S. monetary policy through a NLP approach) presented at the ISF meetings here in Charlottesville. They look to see if in the FOMC minutes, international economic issues are mentioned in a way that, when converted to an index, shows up as statistically significant in a Taylor equation, and provide the answer “yes”.
Category Archives: international
Two Data Sets and Some Papers
For use in ISF 2023 course on “Modeling & Forecasting the International Dimensions”.
Term Spreads for Country Groupings
US, Rest-of-Advanced, Emerging Markets, follow up on individual countries’ term spreads in yesterday’s post.
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
The world economy still “in a precarious state”. The comprehensive analysis, written by the team headed by Ayhan Kose, is here.
Are Imports a Leading or Contemporaneous Indicator of Recession?
Answer: Yes, and (to a lesser extent) Yes.
The Dollar’s Role: Prospects
From D. Fried, CBO Working Paper (summary):
Guest Contribution: “Restructuring Debt of African Commodity-Exporters”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. I would like to thank Sohaib Nasim for valuable assistance on this month’s commentary, as well my others this year.
Dollar Value and the NIIP
Larger and larger gross cross-border holdings lead to bigger swings in the NIIP to GDP ratio.
Mark Sobel on “(Why) The Dollar Is Still King?”: Video
Mark Sobel, former Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary, Executive Director at the IMF, current US Chair of OMFIF and senior adviser at the CSIS , presented his views on the future of the international monetary system on Tuesday. The video is now available, here.
“(Why) Is The Dollar Still King?”
“The Future of the International Monetary System,” a talk by Mark Sobel, former Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary, Executive Director at the IMF, current US Chair next Tuesday (4/4), at H.F. DeLuca Forum (“Discovery Building”), 330 N. Orchard Street. Co-sponsored by the Center for European Studies and the La Follette School of Public Affairs.