Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. I would like to thank Sohaib Nasim for valuable assistance on this month’s commentary, as well my others this year.
Category Archives: international
Dollar Value and the NIIP
Larger and larger gross cross-border holdings lead to bigger swings in the NIIP to GDP ratio.
Mark Sobel on “(Why) The Dollar Is Still King?”: Video
Mark Sobel, former Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary, Executive Director at the IMF, current US Chair of OMFIF and senior adviser at the CSIS , presented his views on the future of the international monetary system on Tuesday. The video is now available, here.
“(Why) Is The Dollar Still King?”
“The Future of the International Monetary System,” a talk by Mark Sobel, former Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary, Executive Director at the IMF, current US Chair next Tuesday (4/4), at H.F. DeLuca Forum (“Discovery Building”), 330 N. Orchard Street. Co-sponsored by the Center for European Studies and the La Follette School of Public Affairs.
Wisconsin GDP in 2022
Wisconsin GDP growth slackened in 2022Q2-Q3, lagging the national deceleration.
Guest Contribution: “Fifty Years of Floating”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
“Forecasting Summer School: Modeling and Forecasting the International Dimensions”
That’s the title of the 6th annual Forecasting Summer School, June 24-25, at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business, Charlottesville, where I’ll be the instructor. The deadline in March 27.
Financial Market Integration Assessed
In a new paper prepared for the Handbook of Financial Integration, edited by Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Hiro Ito and I examine bond based measures of financial market integration (so, no quantity stock/flow measures, nor banking integration).
Do Declining Imports Signal an Imminent Recession?
Maybe. Maybe not. Some reasons to wonder.
One Year In: What Did Putin’s Gambit Do to Spreads, Uncertainty, and Activity?
Bluntly put, term spreads moved toward inversion, and inflation expectations adjusted for premia increased. VIX has been elevated since February 2022, and GeoPolitical Risk rose in the period right after the invasion. Growth, which had been accelerating according to weekly indicators, then decelerated. In other words, “Thanks, Putin”.