The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the historical average (3.1%), and is a welcome sequel to the two quarters of falling GDP with which we started the year.
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Category Archives: international
Forecasts of Russian GDP, pre- and post-
From Heli Simola, BOFIT, in “War’s price tag…”, consensus forecasts from February and from September:
How Much Was the Expanded Russian Invasion of Ukraine Anticipated?
Answer: Not much. This point is critical in assessing how appropriate conditional forecasts of inflation were, especially those pertaining to 2022.
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022: “Countering the Cost of Living Crisis”
The Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2020
We first constructed the index 20 years ago (Chinn and Ito, NBER WP No. 8967)! See the website for the data.
Reserve Currency Status Is No Vaccination against Recklessness – UK Edition
…although it helps.
I never thought an advanced economy government could pursue stupider policies than that implemented under the Trump administration. Consider me corrected on this point – case in point, the United Kingdom in 2022.
Weekly Economic Activity in the UK, and Two Self-Inflicted Wounds
So far, the UK economy is plugging along, according to the OECD Weekly Tracker (through 9/17). But (understatement of the year), challenges have arisen.
Guest Contribution: “U.S. Trade Deficits and Exchange Rates”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
Russian GDP in Q2
Quarter-on-quarter numbers are out (y/y were out earlier). From Iikka Korhonen:
Ukraine Military SitRep Sept 8th
From ISW, as of 9:30pm ET 9/8 (in reply to queries):