Advance indicators for the goods trade balance came in today, at -$83.35 bn above consensus of -$96.90 bn.
Category Archives: international
“Sky-high [natural] gas prices…”
Guest Contribution: “The Strong Dollar, Global Inflation, and Global Recession”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
The External Environment and Prospects for GDP Growth
As noted by Jim in his post on the 2022Q3 GDP release, exports and imports accounted (mechanically) for more than 100% of 2022Q3 GDP growth:
Not a recession … yet
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the historical average (3.1%), and is a welcome sequel to the two quarters of falling GDP with which we started the year.
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Forecasts of Russian GDP, pre- and post-
From Heli Simola, BOFIT, in “War’s price tag…”, consensus forecasts from February and from September:
How Much Was the Expanded Russian Invasion of Ukraine Anticipated?
Answer: Not much. This point is critical in assessing how appropriate conditional forecasts of inflation were, especially those pertaining to 2022.
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022: “Countering the Cost of Living Crisis”
The Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2020
We first constructed the index 20 years ago (Chinn and Ito, NBER WP No. 8967)! See the website for the data.
Reserve Currency Status Is No Vaccination against Recklessness – UK Edition
…although it helps.
I never thought an advanced economy government could pursue stupider policies than that implemented under the Trump administration. Consider me corrected on this point – case in point, the United Kingdom in 2022.