That’s a title of an article by Christopher Condon, in Bloomberg a few days ago. What’s the evidence? Figure 1 shows the typically referenced CPI deflated trade weighted dollar.
Category Archives: international
VoxEU: “The Russian sanctions and dollar foreign exchange reserves”
From a VoxEU article today, by Robert N. McCauley with Hiro Ito and Menzie Chinn:
Will the freezing of the Bank of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves undermine the dollar’s predominant role in official foreign exchange reserves? This column examines the aggregate evidence since end-2021 for any reduction in the dollar share of official foreign exchange reserves against a baseline constructed with data from 1999 through 2021. The observed dollar share in March 2024 differs little from the out-of-sample projection based on this baseline. On this showing, official reserve managers have not reduced the role of the dollar since the freeze of the Bank of Russia’s assets.
Russia Real GDP and GDP ex-Military Spending
Using the April 2024 WEO projections (the July update indicates no revision for 2024 growth, and -0.3 ppts for 2025 y/y), we can see the following trajectory for Russian output, and Russia output ex-military spending.
Russia Economic Sit-Rep: Recession in the Coming Year?
Gorodnichenko, in YahooFinance:
July 2024 WEO Update Released
As of today:
Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: Some Papers [updated to 7/15]
I’ve spent the last week seeing lots of presentations on macro and international finance. Of particular interest are some papers on interest rate parity:
Nontraditional Reserve Holdings, Through 2022
…although incomplete data for 2022.
Reserve De-Dollarization in Progress?
More articles on dollar dominance, e.g. in Foreign Policy, Wells Fargo, vs. BitcoinNews. But most of the discussion centers on dollar use in terms medium of exchange etc. (SWIFT use, invoicing). Here, some recent trends for the reserve dimension.
Chinn, Frankel and Ito: “The Dollar versus the Euro as International Reserve Currencies”
The abstract from article (free access to August 11) forthcoming in the Journal of International Money and Finance [link to ungated working paper version]:
Eswar Prasad: “Top Dollar”
From a just-published article in Foreign Affairs: