We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford Digital Laboratory series (which missed consensus by 84K on the downside)
Nowcasting Private NFP for September
2 Replies
Category Archives: labor market
How Much Does Undocument Immigration Push Down Wages of Native Born Workers
Mr. Bruce Hall quotes from Avila in a FRB Cleveland note:
Why The MacIver Institute Should Be Charged with Data Abuse
In “The Evers Economy Is a Soviet Dream”, Michael Lucas writes:
The CPI Rose…as Did Wages (mid-2022 to 2024)
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni shared this graph of the CPI level:
What If? Thoughts on the No Excess Demand Scenario
It’s become commonplace to assert that the passage of the American Rescue Plan ignited inflation, dooming the prospects for the Biden and Harris candidacies. Consider this piece:
Whose Real Wage?
EJ Antoni writes:
Today’s employment data showed further gains in earnings, but cumulative price increases have still far outpaced earnings growth over the last 4 years.
According to the Household Budget Index, it’s even worse when just considering prices for things you have to buy, i.e., food, housing, etc.
Wages Nominal and Real across the Distribution
Reader Michael writes:
…high income wage growth has grown much faster than medium and low income wage growth patterns.
Average Wages (Still) Rising Faster than Inflation
A comparison between CPI, chained CPI, PCE price index, and HICP deflation:
Recession after the Election?
Charles Payne joins the recession camp.
McService Job Nation?
Reader Moonmac argues the case that we are in a recession, in a rejoinder my paper “Recession since 2022? A Critique“:
McService Job Nation disagrees even though they’re employed. Gainfully is a different matter.