EJ Antoni/Heritage writes alarmingly about how excluding marginally attached workers from the calculation of unemployment is misleading:
Category Archives: labor market
For Labor Day 2024: Four Graphs from “The State of Working Wisconsin, 2024”
On this blog, I intermittently post on Wisconsin macro aggregates. For micro assessments of Wisconsin’s labor markets and household welfare, I turn to High Road Strategy Center’s reports. From the 2024 report, here are four key graphs.
A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official
The ADP survey cumulative increase in private NFP since 2023M03 is 3.1mn, more than the 2.8mn reported in the current official CES series.
Layoffs and Mass Layoffs in Wisconsin
A few days ago, Eric Hovde spoke about impending mass layoffs. I couldn’t figure out what he was talking about; here’re some indicators for Wisconsin, and for the nation.
Wisconsin Employment in July: Cooling
Preliminary NFP count is down 6.5K (on 3 million), unemployment rate up 0.1 ppts.
The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni writes on X (August 2):
Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment has increased 1.3 million; we’re just swapping out American workers at this point, not growing the pie for everyone…
Already in Recession?
Pascal Michaillat (UCSC) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) say 40% probability, yes. From the abstract to the paper:
“Labor Department Quietly Cuts Employment Growth in Half”
That’s the title of an article by Heritage’s EJ Antoni:
Three Episodes of the Sahm Rule Triggered
Recent vs. 2008 and 2001 recessions.
Business Cycle Indicators, with Employment, Monthly GDP
Here’s a picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP: