Wisconsin GDP grew at 4.2% SAAR in Q2. The 2023Q4 figure was raised 2.7% by the annual update (the corresponding figure for US GDP was 1.2%).
Category Archives: labor market
Misery Index, 2020M12 and 2024M08: 8.0% vs. 6.8%
With latest available data:
The Low Consumer Sentiment/Confidence Puzzle Resolved?
In the past few years, a persistently low level of consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, Conference Board, or Gallup surveys, relative to conventional economic measures has puzzled analysts, including this one [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]. This puzzle is illustrated by the evolution of the U. Michigan series (FRED series UMCSENT), and the fitted values using 2011M01-2024M08 data on unemployment and year-on-year inflation.
Real Average Wages
On the rise:
EJ Antoni/Heritage on What Unemployment Rate We Should Be Looking At
EJ Antoni/Heritage writes alarmingly about how excluding marginally attached workers from the calculation of unemployment is misleading:
For Labor Day 2024: Four Graphs from “The State of Working Wisconsin, 2024”
On this blog, I intermittently post on Wisconsin macro aggregates. For micro assessments of Wisconsin’s labor markets and household welfare, I turn to High Road Strategy Center’s reports. From the 2024 report, here are four key graphs.
A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official
The ADP survey cumulative increase in private NFP since 2023M03 is 3.1mn, more than the 2.8mn reported in the current official CES series.
Layoffs and Mass Layoffs in Wisconsin
A few days ago, Eric Hovde spoke about impending mass layoffs. I couldn’t figure out what he was talking about; here’re some indicators for Wisconsin, and for the nation.
Wisconsin Employment in July: Cooling
Preliminary NFP count is down 6.5K (on 3 million), unemployment rate up 0.1 ppts.
The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni writes on X (August 2):
Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment has increased 1.3 million; we’re just swapping out American workers at this point, not growing the pie for everyone…