Di Martino Booth points to the McKelvey rule, which uses a 0.3 ppt threshold instead of the Sahm 0.5 ppt threshold. This indicator does seem to signal a recession as shown in the figure below.
Category Archives: labor market
February 2024 Real-Time Sahm Rule Indicator
Still below threshold: Continue reading
Real Wage Growth, thru January 2024
From BLS today:
Real Wages, Through December (updated)
Average wage for production and nonsupervisory workers in total private and leisure and hospitality services, and implied by median wage growth, all up relative to 2019M12, just before the pandemic. [update and ECI through Q3]
Are We in Recession? The Sahm Rule Now & 2007
Here’s 2007-08:
“the employment cost index: wages and salaries shows a decline since 4Q19”
I do not understand how one can write this sentence in 2023, and still be living on this planet. I retrieved data from FRED (ECIWAG), version posted on October 16, 2023. I plot:
Real Wages
“Real wages have been stagnating”
That’s a quote from reader JohnH. I think whether this statement is true depends on wage measure, deflator.
Guest Contribution: “Do not freak out about the Jobs-Workers Gap (or the Sahm Rule)”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
The Foreign Born Labor Force
and wages in food processing: