Pascal Michaillat (UCSC) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) say 40% probability, yes. From the abstract to the paper:
Category Archives: labor market
“Labor Department Quietly Cuts Employment Growth in Half”
That’s the title of an article by Heritage’s EJ Antoni:
Three Episodes of the Sahm Rule Triggered
Recent vs. 2008 and 2001 recessions.
Business Cycle Indicators, with Employment, Monthly GDP
Here’s a picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP:
Employment: Different Measures
NFP comes under, 114K vs. 176K consensus. Private NFP also missed, +97K vs. +148K consensus.
Real Wages Rising in Wisconsin
For all private workers, as well as production and nonsupervisory:
Vote Trump for Lower GDP, Higher Unemployment
From Wells Fargo today, using Oxford Economics macro model, simulating out the effects of Trump’s trade policies (as stated thus far). Addendum to yesterday’s post “Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates”.
Consensus vs Actual – Real Time Sahm Rule for June [updated]
Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time):
Supreme Court Views on Price Stability and Full Employment
In the wake of the SCOTUS decision regarding Chevron deference, I investigate this issue. Here is a summary of academic research on Supreme Court views on these topics, separate from whether fiat money as currently established in the United States as unconstitutional (e.g., see here). I also defer discussion on whether the Federal Reserve is constitutional.
Immigration, Recovery and Inflation
In the Fed’s recent examination of the differential recovery in the US as compared to the Euro area, UK and Canada, I was surprised that immigration did not make a bigger appearance, given my views.