NFP comes under, 114K vs. 176K consensus. Private NFP also missed, +97K vs. +148K consensus.
Category Archives: labor market
Real Wages Rising in Wisconsin
For all private workers, as well as production and nonsupervisory:
Vote Trump for Lower GDP, Higher Unemployment
From Wells Fargo today, using Oxford Economics macro model, simulating out the effects of Trump’s trade policies (as stated thus far). Addendum to yesterday’s post “Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates”.
Consensus vs Actual – Real Time Sahm Rule for June [updated]
Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time):
Supreme Court Views on Price Stability and Full Employment
In the wake of the SCOTUS decision regarding Chevron deference, I investigate this issue. Here is a summary of academic research on Supreme Court views on these topics, separate from whether fiat money as currently established in the United States as unconstitutional (e.g., see here). I also defer discussion on whether the Federal Reserve is constitutional.
Immigration, Recovery and Inflation
In the Fed’s recent examination of the differential recovery in the US as compared to the Euro area, UK and Canada, I was surprised that immigration did not make a bigger appearance, given my views.
In Recession? Real Time vs. Final Revised Data
Di Martino Booth points to the McKelvey rule, which uses a 0.3 ppt threshold instead of the Sahm 0.5 ppt threshold. This indicator does seem to signal a recession as shown in the figure below.
February 2024 Real-Time Sahm Rule Indicator
Still below threshold: Continue reading
Real Wage Growth, thru January 2024
From BLS today:
Real Wages, Through December (updated)
Average wage for production and nonsupervisory workers in total private and leisure and hospitality services, and implied by median wage growth, all up relative to 2019M12, just before the pandemic. [update and ECI through Q3]