Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, through 12/10; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 11/26 (not updated).
Category Archives: recession
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-December
November industrial and manufacturing production both surprised on the downside — -0.2% and -0.1% vs. +0.1% and -0.1% m/m (Bloomberg). This is the resulting picture for some key variables followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
“Do foreign yield curves predict US recessions and GDP growth?”
Our short answer: yes.
Some Empirical Definitions of Recession, around the World: An Incomplete List
For those who don’t want to use a simple two-consecutive-quarter rule (which would declare the 2001 recession a non-recession).
So You Think We Were In a Recession in 2022H1? – Last Observations for 2022
At least somebody still believes that as of a couple weeks ago.
FT-IGM December Macroeconomists Survey – Fed Policy, Impending Recession (and More)
10yr-3mo Term Spread and Recession, Down Under
Here’s a picture of the 10yr-3mo term spread in Australia:
Term Spreads and Recessions, Country by Country Evidence – a Very Incomplete Review
Dr. Rosser asks what is the evidence for term spreads predicting recessions, with special reference to Japan. Here is my partial answer:
Term Spreads around the World, as of December 6, 2022
Here is a snapshot of four key term spreads spreads through November (an examination prompted by a Deutsche Bank missive title “The Looming Recession” which dropped into my inbox today).
GS “Recession Watch” Odds at 35%
From M. Abecasis/GS today: