Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Category Archives: recession
The Employment Release: The Business Cycle Assessed, Accounting for Labor Measurement Issues, Weekly Indicators
The employment situation release for December 2022 provides latest available monthly data on the economy’s conditions. Here’re a variety of labor market indicators:
Wells Fargo: “Nonfarm Payrolls: Too Good to Be True?”
From House and Pugliese at WF today:
- The buoyancy of nonfarm payroll growth has seemed at odds with other signs that the jobs market is beginning to sour. …
- Yet the jobs market is hardly falling apart. A holistic look at the data suggests that directionally the labor market is weakening, but at a measured pace and from a remarkably strong starting point. Not only do signals of demand remain strong on an absolute basis, but job switching remains elevated and the unemployment rate remains exceptionally low at 3.7%.
The Jobs Worker Gap in November [Updated to December]
[Updated to include December data] Late to the commentary, here’s a picture of the jobs-workers gap for November, based on JOLTS data:
ADP Release, and the Flat Employment Growth in Q2 Thesis
The relatively volatile household survey employment series and the Philadelphia Fed’s estimated preliminary benchmark adjusted series suggest flat employment in Q2 (although NOT in H1); see graphs in this post. The ADP release on private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment today (surprising on the upside 235K vs 150K consensus) suggests otherwise, when taking into account the relatively small change in government employment over the relevant period.
Coincident Indicators of Recession: VMT, Heavy Truck Sales, Sahm Rule
Ever wonder whether vehicle miles traveled (VMT) does a good job of predicting recessions. Wonder no more. First take a look at what VMT does over recessions, versus heavy truck sales (suggested by Calculated Risk at some points), and the eponymous Sahm Rule (real time version).
Business Cycle Indicators at 2023’s Beginning
Monthly GDP for November is out. Q4 tracking is for q/q growth 2.1%-3.9% (SAAR).
Maximum AUROC Spreads as of 12/25/2022: Recession Ahead, and If So, When?
In 2019, Fed economist David Miller undertook a comprehensive assessment of term spread predictive power for recessions (There is No Single Best Predictor of Recessions). For the 1984-2018 period, he found the following:
Christmas Eve Eve Business Cycle Conditions
Consumption flat, at expectations. We now have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
GDP 3rd Release, GDO, GDP+, GDPNow etc.
Here’s the picture: revisions up in Q3 GDP, and GDP+. Note that GDP+ indicates no downturn in 2022H1.