IHS-Markit’s monthly GDP now down seven months. Some key indicators followed by NBER BCDC:
Category Archives: recession
Term Spread Models for Recession by June 2023
Probabilities from 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr spreads:
Business Cycle Indicators end-June
With consumption (nominal at 0.2% vs.0.4% consensus) and personal income May releases, we have the following snapshot of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Does a Decline in the 12 Month Moving Average of VMT Presage a Recession?
Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
But by and large, VMT on a 12 mms basis turns a bit before or right at the start of a recession.
Is a Decline in Vehicle Miles Traveled a 1 Month Leading Indicator for Recession?
Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
Another is vehicle miles traveled, which is either very short term leading (ie, failing one month or so prior to the official onset of recession), coincident, or lagging by up to 4-5 months if one is using, say, 12 month moving sums.
So You Think We Might Be in a Recession Today (Part III)
Some people point to initial claims for unemployment insurance.
Why We Don’t Call Recessions on the Basis of Petroleum Use
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part II)?
Look around at enough indicators (say vehicle miles traveled) and you might think so. A follow up to this post. Let’s look at what conventional and high frequency indicators say.
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today?
For the consideration of some people.
The Sahm Rule for determining a recession onset in real time is based on a greater than 50 bps increase in the 3 month moving average unemployment rate relative to its low in the preceding 12 months. This is the picture, using the May 2022 employment situation release data.
Business Cycles in the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee Framework (edition XLXIV)
Some people assert when polls of the public indicate a majority think we’re in a recession, we’re in a recession, definitionally. Some people believe that when there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, we’re in a recession. Well, any given person can define a banana as a spherical fruit, but it is sometimes useful to define what a recession is, as defined by the scholars who coined the term, or who have been understood to be the arbiters of the term in quasi official terms. From the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee FAQs webpage: