Industrial production and manufacturing production both came under Bloomberg consensus (-0.2% m/m vs. +0.1, -0.5% vs. +0.1, respectively). With these data, we have this picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Category Archives: recession
IMF Forecast for US GDP: No Recession
From the Article IV consultation:
Why I Suspect Q1 GDP Will Eventually Be Revised Up
First, look at nonfarm payroll employment and industrial production, as compared to GDP (and GDO):
So You Think We’re in a Recession as of Mid-June (Part II)?
From Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank today, the observation “…through history a recession usually has a negative print in the first month of it being declared, which then carries on for the vast majority of the subsequent year. This clearly hasn’t happened yet.”
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession as of Mid-June?
With today’s employment situation release, we have the real-time Sahm rule indicator through June:
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part V)?
Recession Talk: US and Euro Area
From Goldman Sachs (Milo, Struyven, Revisiting Recession Facts”) today:
We see the risk that the economy enters a recession in the next year at 30% in the US, 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK. … Our subjective recession probabilities are significantly higher than the average 15% annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s.
Of Revisions and Seasonality in the Pandemic Era
It’s important to recall, especially as some nowcasts suggest a negative reading for Q2 growth, that GDP numbers are revised. The first release is called an “advance” release because a substantial share of the inputs are estimated. Below are the various vintages of GDP, starting after the trough so as to better highlight recent revisions.
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part IV)?
The “Non-Technical Recession” Recession of 2001
I recall a conversation sometime in May 2001, when on the staff of the CEA, where the topic was how all the indicators were all pointing toward avoiding a recession. Indeed, using the oft-cited rule of thumb of two-consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, there was no 2001 recession (although there was by this criterion a period of about 2 years, 2002-04, when there was). Consider this graph of GDP, by different vintages: