Forecasters are downbeat relative April survey (Figure 1). And about a third forecast negative Q/Q growth in 2022Q2, but the mean (and median) forecast is for positive growth, as shown in Figure 2 (though there being two consecutive quarters of negative growth are not central to determining whether NBER BCDC declares a recession). About a fifth of respondents predict at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth starting later in 2022-23.
Category Archives: recession
Another Quarter of Negative Growth?
The Atlanta Fed’s nowcast for Q2 as of 7/15 was for -1.5% Q/Q SAAR. What does this tell us about what is likely to be the advance print, and then subsequent releases.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-July
Industrial production and manufacturing production both came under Bloomberg consensus (-0.2% m/m vs. +0.1, -0.5% vs. +0.1, respectively). With these data, we have this picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
IMF Forecast for US GDP: No Recession
From the Article IV consultation:
Why I Suspect Q1 GDP Will Eventually Be Revised Up
First, look at nonfarm payroll employment and industrial production, as compared to GDP (and GDO):
So You Think We’re in a Recession as of Mid-June (Part II)?
From Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank today, the observation “…through history a recession usually has a negative print in the first month of it being declared, which then carries on for the vast majority of the subsequent year. This clearly hasn’t happened yet.”
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession as of Mid-June?
With today’s employment situation release, we have the real-time Sahm rule indicator through June:
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part V)?
Recession Talk: US and Euro Area
From Goldman Sachs (Milo, Struyven, Revisiting Recession Facts”) today:
We see the risk that the economy enters a recession in the next year at 30% in the US, 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK. … Our subjective recession probabilities are significantly higher than the average 15% annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s.
Of Revisions and Seasonality in the Pandemic Era
It’s important to recall, especially as some nowcasts suggest a negative reading for Q2 growth, that GDP numbers are revised. The first release is called an “advance” release because a substantial share of the inputs are estimated. Below are the various vintages of GDP, starting after the trough so as to better highlight recent revisions.