Personal income and consumption for January, and manufacturing and trade industry sales for December, were released last week. The PCE deflator for January was also released, rounding out January inflation numbers.
Category Archives: recession
Depressions and Recessions
A reader writes:
If you want to explain the difference between a recession and a depression, or why it took seven years for the economy to regain previous highs after 2008, well, go ahead. I’m all ears.
Predictions – Oil Prices and Recoveries and Recessions
A bit over 12 years ago, one prognosticator Steven Kopits wrote:
With the 9.4% unemployment report WTI oil prices are, I believe, effectively at a post-crash high.
I think the economic news suggests that we are running up the back of the “V”.
This is good news and bad news. The good news: an unexpectedly sharp recovery. The bad news: Our analysis suggests the US falls back into recession above $80 oil, and I think we’ll have a chance to test the hypothesis relatively soon.
Interpreting Macroeconomically a War Scenario, Graphically
Most of the discussion of the macro implications of an expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine presumes elevated oil prices (e.g., [1]). This makes sense, certainly for the short run. However, if oil prices rise sufficiently (keeping in mind for Brent have already risen from about $70/bbl to $90/bbl), they will kick the economy into a slowdown. Slowdowns tend to push down oil prices. I think in terms of graphs; this is how I see the short term, and (potentially) medium term.
Business Cycle Indicators, with Employment
With the upside surprise in nonfarm payroll employment, we have the following picture of economic activity.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January 2022
Industrial production comes in below consensus (-0.1% vs. Bloomberg +0.3% m/m). Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Business Cycle Indicators, at Year’s Start 2022
Monthly GDP for November is in; next big indicator is December nonfarm payroll on Friday. Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-November
With the rebound in industrial production, and upward revisions in nonfarm payroll employment two weeks ago, key indicators look a little better than last post on this subject, a month ago.
Recession before the Leaves Fall?
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-October
Here is a graph of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, including industrial production, which missed expectations (actual -1.3% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg consensus, m/m not annualized):