While there was a big downside NFP surprise (194K vs. Bloomberg consensus of 500K), the overall picture is not much altered:
Category Archives: recession
The 10 year-3 month Treasury Spread over 75 Years
For the past 50 years, inversion has preceded recession.
Business Cycle Indicators as of the Beginning of October
Consumption rises as personal income ex-transfers fall in August, and monthly GDP rebounds somewhat. Consumption remains 2.8% above 2020M02 levels (the latest NBER peak). Here’s the picture of the macroeconomy (for some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC).
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-September
Industrial production finally rises above levels in 2020M02 (the latest NBER peak). We now have the following picture of the macroeconomy (for some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC).
The Outlook – The August Survey of Professional Forecasters
Growth prospects decelerate, while the CPI level looks higher, according to the August Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Messages from the 21Q2 GDP Advance Release: No Economy Is an Island
With apologies to John Donne.
Jim provided some key points in his Thursday post regarding the 21Q2 advance figures. Here are my additional takeaways: (1) the Administration’s forecast locked down in February looks prescient; (2) Final sales were higher than GDP, (3) exports have not buttressed growth, partly because of slow rest-of-world growth, (4) price growth is a rising share of nominal GDP growth.
Business Cycle Indicators for End-July 2021
Consumption, personal income and St. Louis Fed’s real manufacturing and trade industry sales were released today. The July employment situation will be released next Friday. This is the picture today.
NBER Declares Recession Trough at 2020M04
From NBER today:
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs of US business cycles. The committee has determined that a trough in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in April 2020. The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020. The recession lasted two months, which makes it the shortest US recession on record.
Guest Contribution: “Economics of the Pandemic in Asia, 2020”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Calla Wiemer (President, American Committee on Asian Economic Studies).
Business Cycle Indicators and Retail Sales as of Mid-July 2021
Industrial production was released yesterday, and retail sales today.