The IGM/Fivethirtyeight Round 7 survey is out, with discussion here. The poll results are here. Below are some forecasts and nowcasts to consider.
Category Archives: recession
No V for Thee (i.e., we’re not going to get 49% SAAR)
From Reuters:
“I think the economy is on a self-sustaining recovery and it’s a V-shaped recovery.”
Contemplating the (No Deal) Cliff
The recovery package cliff, that is. DeutscheBank research outlines what they think is likely (baseline) and what a no-deal means for disposable personal income.
Why Do We Care about Retail Sales?
In these times? Among other reasons, it’s: (1) An indicator of household consumption behavior; (2) An indicator of conditions for business – including small/medium size enterprises. Hence, the recovery of retail sales has been much lauded. But if you thought the recovery was in brick-and-mortar retailers, you’d be somewhat misguided.
The Outlook: Ivory Tower vs. Wall Street
The Survey of Professional Forecasters’ Q3 forecast came out today, the Wall Street Journal August survey yesterday, and the IGM/Fivethirtyeight Covid-19 panel a few days ago. Here’s an opportunity to compare and contrast perspectives – as shown in Figure 1.
Wall Street Economists’ Outlook
The trajectory of the recovery according to the consensus is little changed from the Wall Street Journal‘s July survey — despite the derailment of the Phase 4 recovery package. However, more analysts perceive a “W” than before.
Business Cycle Indicators, August 7th
With today’s employment situation release, here are five key indicators referenced by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee in Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0.
The GDP Collapse: It Is What It Is
Jim discussed elements of the 2020Q2 advance release on Thursday. Here, I amplify some aspects that he mentioned.
Business Cycle Indicators: August 3, 2020
Here are five key indicators referenced by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee in Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0.
Record-breaking drop in GDP
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP was 9.5% lower in the second quarter than it had been in the first quarter, which they reported as a decline at an annual rate of 32.9% (0.9054 – 1 = -0.329). That is four times as large a quarterly decline as anything since the BEA began reporting quarterly GDP in 1947, and represents a 10 sigma (10 standard deviations) event.
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