FT Alphaville on crude oil and the eurozone crisis.
“http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2012/01/evaluating-recession-forecasts.html”>Jeff Miller does not buy into recent forecasts of a U.S. recession. On a related note, Bonddad deconstructs the ECRI Weekly Leading Index.
VoxEu notes the systematic international tendency for official deficit figures to understate the magnitude of the change in public debt.
Liberty Street Economics on forecasting with internet search data.
When I discuss Lost Decades I always stress the fact that the “s” denotes the plural. Figure 1 shows that a decade and a half in, the trajectory of output has been noticeably depressed since 2001Q1.
One of the startling things about consumption behavior is that, despite the burst of spending surrounding the holiday season, per capita consumption in 2011Q3 has only re-attained the levels of 2008Q3. Various explanations have been forwarded, ranging from the failure of Keynesian economics [0], to the decline in income prospects or higher income uncertainty, or to the decline in observed net worth [1] (deleveraging, in certain interpretations).
Here I offer some observations on what’s been holding back the recovery.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.5% during the third quarter of 2011. That’s below the average postwar growth rate of 3.2% and well below the 4.3% growth for an average expansion quarter. Even so, it’s better than any of the previous 3 quarters, and better than many analysts had been expecting when the quarter began in July.
By David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan
Today, we’re fortunate to have David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Clinical Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Houston, as Guest Contributors.
Today we’re pleased to feature a guest contribution from Michael Dueker, chief economist at Russell Investments and formerly an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Dueker is also a member of the Blue Chip forecasting panel. Econbrowser readers may remember that in February 2008 Dueker correctly predicted the onset of the current recession, using a model-based forecast. In a depths-of-recession piece from December 2008, he predicted in this forum that the recession would last until July or August of 2009, but that employment growth would not resume until March of 2010. We asked Mike to share the latest macroeconomic predictions from the Dueker Business Cycle Index model, subject to the disclaimer that the content does not constitute investment advice or projections of the stock market or any specific investment.
The stock market has looked scary. But economic indicators suggest U.S. growth is continuing.
We know that in the aftermath of combined housing busts, financial crises, and recessions, recoveries are typically modest if not halting, even if the recession is deep. [0] This characterization appears to have held true, with the question now whether we will enter into a new recession, or merely plug along with growth that technically constitutes a recovery, but is not sufficient to close the output gap with appreciable speed.
We had a couple of pretty scary economic developments last week, but as far as I can tell, we’re still standing.