We have plenty of competing assessments as of today. From three Federal Reserve Banks and Goldman Sachs.
Category Archives: recession
EJ Antoni/Heritage on What Unemployment Rate We Should Be Looking At
EJ Antoni/Heritage writes alarmingly about how excluding marginally attached workers from the calculation of unemployment is misleading:
Kudlow: “We Are in the Front End of a Recession”
Audio here, at 2:30 approximately. He also says private NFP gain is down to +56K, while private ex-health care and social services (all essentially government), was only up +12K. Here’s the picture I get looking at current vintage/latest release:
Goldman Sachs on the Post-Election Economy
From Alec Phillips, David Mericle and Tim Krupa (Goldman Sachs, 3 September 2024):
Business Cycle Indicators and the Employment Release
Employment growth is slowing. Even taking the preliminary benchmark at face value, we’re not in recession as of mid-August (when the survey is taken).
Peter Schiff on Recession
Peter Schiff today:
This morning has seen a trifecta of weak economic data. Aug. PMI & ISM manufacturing both came out even weaker than expected, while July construction spending unexpectedly fell. It’s becoming clear the #economy is entering a #recession just as #inflation is poised to turn higher.
Business Cycle Indicators as of September’s Start
Including monthly GDP out today from S&P Global Market Insights, and preliminary benchmark NFP:
It’s Almost as If Some People Were Rooting for Recession
EJ Antoni (Heritage) is dubious about GDPNow’s (and other nowcasts) regarding Q3 growth. From X aka Twitter today:
Big Mac Nation in Recession?
Actually, no — but perhaps a fast food nation in recession. In arguing that output is mismeasured, so much so we’ve been in recession for the past four years, Peter St. Onge (Heritage) and Jeffrey Tucker (Brownstone Institute) write:
Various studies have shown that since 2019 fast food prices — a gold standard in financial markets for measuring true inflation — have outpaced official CPI by between 25% and 50%.
Business Cycle Indicators as of August’s End
July nominal consumption growth at consensus (+0.5%). Month-on-Month annualized real consumption growth at 4.5%, with June revised up from 2.6% to 3.2%. Moreover, annualized personal income ex-transfers grew 1.9% in July. Here is a snapshot of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.