I subtitle this post “The Shadow of ShadowStats” which is now offline and available only by subscription. Referring to under-estimated inflation, Peter St. Onge (Heritage) and Jeffrey Tucker (Brownstone Institute) argued in June that not only are we now in a recession, we’ve been in recession for the past four years!
Category Archives: recession
GDP 2nd Release for Q2
Revised up 0.2 ppts, 0.2 ppts above consensus. Final sales up 0.2 ppts. GDO rises 2.1% q/q SAAR.
EJ Antoni on the Current Recession
Manufacturing in Recession?
Preliminary benchmark revision takes down March employment by 0.9%. Here’s a picture of various series relevant to the manufacturing sector.
The Preliminary Benchmark Revision in Context
818 downward revision in March 2024 NFP.
Recession before the Election?
I see a bevy of economists (a lot on the right, see here) saying we’re in a recession, or soon to be in one. What do predictive models say?
Conspiracy of Silence at the Treasury about the Definition of a Recession (!)
Not from the Onion, but rather from the Daily Signal, mouthpiece of the Heritage Foundation:
EJ Antoni on the Recession
of 2022H1, in light of his declaration of recession now. From August 1, 2022, from Heritage Explains episode “Biden’s Recession”:
EJ Antoni: “manufacturing is in recession”
From X, on Thursday:
Wesley Clair Mitchell and Business Cycle Measurement
From NBER President & CEO James Poterba, on 8/5/2024: