Part 1,434,237. (Previously [1] [2] [3][4][5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] ) Remember EJ Antoni, declaring a recession occurring in 2022H1?
Category Archives: recession
Disciplining the Debate: Recession Indicator AUROCs
One of the interesting things about the current debate over whether we’re about to go into a recession or not is the multitude of indicators that different people glom onto — without any expressed formal rationale for picking one over the other. See this list of people in the recession camp, here.
In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Recession Probabilities
No apparent recession as of August 2024 data (my interpretation – see the opposing views here). Using year-ago financial data, what would have probit regressions have indicated? It matters which variables you use, and whether you include the 2020 recession.
“Newly released data from the Commerce Department show what some people have been saying for months: The nation is in recession.”
That’s EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation, writing in September 2022. A cautionary note on declaring recessions.
Who Is in the Recession Camp Now? [Updated to 11/1]
[Post originally published on 8/18] It’s not a big one, but here’s an incomplete list:
FT-Booth September Survey of Macroeconomists: Growth or Recession?
For GDP, no recession on the short horizon:
End-of-Week Nowcasts
St. Louis and NY Feds have new nowcasts.
Mackintosh/WSJ: “A Recession Signal Is Flashing Red. Or Is It?”
Article today on whether it matters if dis-inversion occurs because short rates fall, or long rates rise.
Betting on Recession? Literally…
Nowcasts – Updated
GDPNow Q3 growth nowcast now up to 2.5%, from 2.1%.