Category Archives: Trade Policy

The Course of the US-China Trade War, Viewed through the Lens of Soybeans

Or, hope died in August 2018…

Figure 1: (Log) July 2019 soybean futures contract price minus spot price (blue). Source: ino.com and macrotrends.com, and author’s calculations. Red dashed line at 7/12/2018, one year before expiration of July 2019 futures contract. Dates from Dezan Shira and Assoc.

Typically, the futures and spot should differ by cost of carry, but for soybean futures, but at the 3, 6 and 12 months horizons, the futures are an unbiased predictor of future spot rates (see Chinn and Coibion, 2014). Hence, the spread can (roughly) be interpreted as an estimate spot rate rising in the future, which is inversely proportional to the probability of a resolution of the US-China trade war (cost of carry is going to vary over the year, so the spread is only partly indicative).

For the course of the spot and July 2019 futures, see this post.

Seven (Business) Days in May

[updated 6/3] Undervalued currencies as countervailable subsidies, tariffs on Mexico, flash mfg PMI drops, Drumpf again insists China pays US tariffs…so the yield curve inverts!

Figure 1: [Updated 6/3) Treasury 10yr-3mo spread (blue, left scale), 10yr-2yr (red, left scale), 5yr-3mo (teal, left scale), in %; 6/3 interest rates on-the-run at 1:30PM EST, and Economic Policy Uncertainty index (black, right scale). Source: Fed via FRED, US Treasury, and policyuncertainty.com, accessed 6/3/2019.

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The “Blip” Continues! Soybean Edition

A year ago, the July 2019 futures were $10.46, compared to $8.296 today.

Reader CoRev writes on July 9th:

…no one has denied the impact of tariffs on FUTURES prices. Those of us arguing against the constant anti-tariff, anti-Trump dialogs have noted this will probably be a price blip lasting until US/Chinese negotiations end. We are on record saying the prices will be back approaching last year’s harvest season prices.

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Driving to War in a Ford Fiesta!

That’s the rationale, according to the Association of Global Automakers, as quoted in Car and Driver! Mr. Trump declares Section 232 tariffs for automobiles.

Thus, the Secretary found that American-owned automotive R&D and manufacturing are vital to national security.  Yet, increases in imports of automobiles and automobile parts, combined with other circumstances, have over the past three decades given foreign-owned producers a competitive advantage over American-owned producers.

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