The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the long-run historical average of 3.1%. With inflation coming down, I think we now can declare that the Fed has achieved the admirable but difficult objective of a “soft landing” — bringing inflation down without tipping the U.S. into recession.
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Steven Kamin & Benedict Clements: “The Biden-Harris Macroeconomic Record Is Getting a Bum Rap”
From AEI:
Puerto Rico under Trump
A reminder. Economic indicators, excess fatalities.
Consumer Confidence Surprises on the Upside
108.7 vs. 99.5 (Bloomberg consensus). Is positive economic news percolating into surveys? From the Confidence Board today:
If the Official Inflation Rate Is Correct, the Real Policy Rate In Russia Is Now 12.4%
The Central Bank of Russia today raised the policy rate from 19% to 21%.
September Coincident Indexes
Three month growth rate 2.7% ann’d, 3 month diffusion index at 48.
What Kind of Macro Model is the Heritage Foundation Using?
From Heritage:
“At least 3,000 North Korean soldiers now inside Russia, US says”
Headline from CNN.
Why So Glum? Structural Break in Michigan Sentiment?
Ryan Cummings and Ernie Tedeschi have a very interesting article in BriefingBook today which casts new light on the disjuncture between measured sentiment and conventional macroeconomic indicators. Cummings and Tedeschi document how the move to online sampling has altered the characteristics of the University of Michigan Economic Sentiment series.
Eric Hovde: In Recession (and Recession Forecast from Dec 2023) [updated]
Video today.