I see so much nonsense written by people who purport to understand who has a “good” publication record and who does not (no names named, you know who you are). Here are a couple of hints.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Uncertainty and Risk Measures
If Russia were to invade the Ukraine, all bets are off on macro and financial forecasts. Given the recent briefing, here’s what some measures of uncertainty and risk look like:
Expected Inflation over the 12 Months
All measures — even those typically upwardly biased — indicate slower inflation over the next year.
The Recovery in Wisconsin
Output is still below peak levels.
The Asset Side of the Fed’s Balance Sheet, and Credit Easing to Date
You can always see a nice graphic showing the broad breakdown of Fed asset holdings at the Cleveland Fed’s website:
GDP almost back to potential
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, more than twice the average growth rate the U.S. has seen since World War II.
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EconoFact at Five
Tomorrow, January 20th, EconoFact celebrates its 5 year anniversary, providing non-partisan, incisive analyses on timely and important economic and social policy issues. It does so by bringing to the public debate the expertise of leading economists and social scientists via memos and podcasts.
Employer Power in Labor Markets, Measured
In recent exchange [1], some exhibited skepticism that monopsony power exists in labor markets. A recent article documents evidence that manufacturers exhibit such power. From Yeh (2022):
More on the “omicron dud”
Following up on “omicron is a dud” – From CDC, forecasted deaths of 10 January 2022:
CPI Inflation in December
Beware the headlines — month-on-month inflation is (again) down, even if up year-on-year. Trimmed and chained CPI price inflation are also down, while sticky price inflation was flat. Headline and core CPI did surprise on the upside though (m/m, 10 bps over Bloomberg consensus).