“2023 GDP growth expected at +0.5% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q); 2024 expected at +1.7%” (SIFMA stands for Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) From the Report.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Why Consumption Has Been Sustained
The permanent income hypothesis in its RatEx-no liquidity constraint version says that consumption will adjust upward fully in response to a windfall. This will mean it will take a while to decumulate the “excess savings” transferred during the pandemic. How much remains? Here’s a guess from Torsten Slok:
Capture and Ideology, Debt Ceiling Edition
In my first published peer-reviewed article, Peter Navarro and I argued that both economic special interests and candidate ideology separately could explain Congressional voting farm subsidies (we also applied the framework to domestic content legislation for automobiles), following Kalt and Zupan (AER 1984). In the ongoing discussions of how many members of the Republican caucus would vote for the (yet to be released) debt ceiling bill, I wondered how one would test the separate effects.
“The Charles Ives Opera Award”
My wife Laura Schwendinger, and Ginger Strand, were awarded this prize by the American Academy of Arts and Letters, for their opera Artemisia.
“Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”
That’s the title of a conference in Padova, September 21-22. Call for papers (deadline 5/31!).
X-Date Estimate – June 5 or so?
From Zeng and Ryan at DeutscheBank yesterday.
Percent vs. Percentage Points…and…Exponential vs. Linear
One can talk about a percent increase in a profit margin… but that really only serves to confuse.
Why Might Firms Raise Prices Faster than Input Prices?
Josh Bivens at EPI has recently presented a decomposition of price changes into those attributable to price-cost margins (i.e., roughly profits), labor and nonlabor input prices, to wit:
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One Year US Treasury CDS
What’s the chances? Depends on what the assumed recovery rate is. Here’s the cost of insurance.
1 mo-Fed funds Spread vs. 3 mo-1 mo Spread
Inversion on the second, as the first rises, as likelihood of June 1 default rises.